15* Padres/Brewers NLDS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego +125

The Milwaukee Brewers were very fortunate to win Game 1.  The Padres had a would-be go ahead homer hit the rafters and it was caught in deep left field.  No question it would have been a homer off closer Trevor Megill.  They left 11 runners on base in their 3-2 defeat and had more opportunities than the Brewers all game.

I like the fact that Game 2 is an early start time the next day so the Padres will have no problem getting over it quickly.  I like how Game 2 sets up for them as their best reliever in closer Mason Miller didn't pitch last night, so he will be in line for multiple innings tonight if need be.

Meanwhile, the Brewers went through all their best arms using five different relievers including multiple innings for closer Megill.  They also used Hall, Uribe and Ashby.  This will undoubtedly be a close game in the final innings, and I think the Padres are better positioned to get it done late at a nice underdog value.

The Padres are on a 19-4 run in their last 23 games overall.  Their offense came to life scoring at least 4 runs in 18 of their last 21 games, including 7 runs or more in 12 of their last 20 contests.  They outscored the Cubs 12-1 in sweeping the Wild Card series.

Michael King is 13-10 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 33 starts for the Padres this season.  He tossed 7 shutout innings of one-hit ball in Game 1 against the Cubs.  King held the Brewers to one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 victory at Milwaukee on May 13th in his lone start against them this season.  He has posted a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers while allowing 8 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings.

Logan Henderson had a great regular season at 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 18 starts.  However, one of his worst starts of the season came against the Padres on August 10th.  He allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 1/3 innings of a 3-2 loss to San Diego.  Bet the Padres in Game 2 Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Tennessee Titans +11.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tennessee Titans after a 0-3 start.  After opening with a 13-point loss to the Jets, the Titans had their chances to win in the final seconds in each of their last two games.  They lost by 4 as 7-point dogs to the Eagles and by 5 as 2.5-point dogs to the Giants.

While the Titans are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, the Ravens are dealing with a ton of injuries that do not warrant them being this big of a favorite.  They lost their top two centers in Pocic and Gwynn to injury last week and are down to a rookie 3rd-stringer.  LB Trey Hendrickson is out, while WR Zay Flowers and OT Ronnie Stanley are questionable.

The Ravens are vulnerable up the middle offensively now.  That makes this a particularly bad matchup for them going up against the biggest strength of the Titans, which is the interior of their defensive line led by Jeffery Simmons.  Robert Saleh will take advantage of this weakness for the Ravens and send plenty of pressure up the middle.

This is also a letdown spot for the Ravens.  They have the long flight back from Brazil after escaping with a last-second win over the Cowboys last week.  We see them come up flat as big favorites at home multiple times every season.  They already did it once losing outright to the Saints as 8.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They may find a way to win this game, but I fully expect it to be closer than this line suggests.

The Titans have a very good offensive line and a solid running game when their backs in Pollard and Spears are healthy.  It's supposed to rain throughout the game, so running the football and stopping the run will be very important.  I think Tennessee matches up well in both departments with the Ravens.  The rain will suppress scoring, which will help keep the Titans in this game.

The Titans average 4.2 yards per rush and allow 3.6 yards per rush this season.  Baltimore rushes for 5.2 yards per carry while allowing 4.1 per carry.  But the Ravens have played a very easy schedule of opposing defenses in the Colts, Cowboys and Saints.  This Tennessee defense will bet the best unit Baltimore has faced this season.

NFL teams that are 0-3 entering Week 4 up against a team with at least one win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005.  I would not play all these teams blindly, but the Titans are my favorite of the bunch in this situation.  It makes sense too because these 0-3 teams play with more desperation than their opponents.  They are also undervalued after three straight losses, and the Titans fit that bill.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

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15* Cowboys/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston -2.5

The Texans are the only team since 2000 to make the playoffs after a 0-3 start.  They have done it twice, including last season.  They have been here before and they will not panic, but they will be playing with a greater sense of urgency this week to get their first win.  They could easily be 3-0 or 2-1 instead when you look at the results.

The Texans were only outgained by 28 yards by the Bills but were -2 in turnovers in a 36-31 home loss in Week 1.  They dropped what would have been the game-winning INT.  In Week 2, they actually outgained the Bengals by 107 yards but lost 20-6.  That was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  And last week they fought back to take a lead, only to lose on a last-second FG 19-17 at Indianapolis.

NFL teams that are 0-3 entering Week 4 up against a team with at least one win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005.  I would not play all these teams blindly, but the Texans are my favorite of the bunch in this situation.  It makes sense too because these 0-3 teams play with more desperation than their opponents.  They are also undervalued after three straight losses, and the Texans fit that bill.

But the biggest reason I'm on the Texans is their injury report compared to that of Dallas.  The Texans are night and day better offensively with star WR Nico Collins in the lineup.  Collins had 7 receptions for 75 yards and a TD in the Week 1 loss to the Bills.  The Texans have been lost without him the last two weeks.  But Collins returns this week, and I expect this Houston offense to thrive against the worst defense they have faced this season in the Cowboys.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 27.3 points per game, 387 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season despite facing two poor offenses in the Giants and the Commanders with Marcus Mariota.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. this week.

The Texans still have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They have played three very good offenses in the Bills, Bengals and Colts and have held them to 325.3 yards per game.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week after not being able to get the game-winning stop in the losses to the Bills and Colts giving up a lead in the final seconds of both.

The Cowboys have a knack for losing close games.  They found a way to lose to the Ravens in Brazil at the buzzer last week, and now this is a brutal spot for them.  It's the type of loss that can beat them twice.  Now they'll be on the road for a second consecutive week after the long flight back from Brazil.  I don't expect it to go well for them, especially with a motivated Houston team waiting for them.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -1

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  After upsetting the Chargers 26-14 on the road in Week 1, the Cardinals played two of the best teams in the NFL the last two weeks in the Seahawks and 49ers.  They let go of the rope in the 2H after being tied 7-7 with the Seahawks at halftime.  They fought hard but lost 36-30 as 7.5-point road dogs to the 49ers.

Now the Cardinals take a big step down in class here against the Giants.  It's an overrated Giants team that is off to a surprising 2-1 start.  They showed what they were capable of when fully healthy in Week 1 beating the Cowboys 28-20 at home.  But then they lost QB Jaxson Dart in Week 2 and were blown out 28-6 by the Rams.  And last week they played a bottom 3 team in the NFL in the Titans and got a game-winning INT in the end zone to preserve a 12-7 victory.

This is where all the injuries catch up to the Giants.  Backup QB Jameis Winston looks like a shell of his former self.  They built this offense around the dual-threat ability of Dart, but Winston is not that.  Winston is completing 51% of his passes and averaging 4.7 per attempt this season.  The Giants suffered a big blow with the loss of LB Brian Burns, their best overall defender and their best pass rusher.

The Giants have terrible numbers this season.  They are averaging 271.3 yards per game and 4.7 per play on offense, and allowing 329.0 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 57.7 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  It's only going to get worse moving forward in their current state with all these injuries.

The Cardinals have a much more talented roster than they get credit for.  And that has shown this season, and thankfully after being injury-ravaged last year, they are currently one of the most healthy teams in the NFL.  All 11 starters are healthy on offense.  Nine starters are healthy on defense with the lone exception being CB Will Johnson, while DE Josh Sweat is questionable.

The Cardinals are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games against NFC East opponents, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven against this division.  They tend to play much better when they step outside the NFC West, which is far and away the best division in football.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* Broncos/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 46.5

The 49ers have the best offense in the NFL this season.  They are scoring 32.7 points per game, averaging 399.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  Kyle Shanahan has Brock Purdy as a favorite to win the MVP, and they are doing it despite cluster injuries at the WR position.  They are just so good at scheming guys open no matter who is on the field.

But what makes the 49ers an OVER team right now is all their injuries on defense.  They are without as many as six defensive linemen this week in Bosa, Collins, Williams, West, Okuayinonu and Thompson Jr.  DE Keion White, LB Greenlaw and LB Dugger are three starters who are all questionable for the 49ers as well.

All these defensive injuries forced the 49ers to win a 36-30 shootout with the Cardinals last week that saw 66 combined points.  And now the Broncos are going to bring their solid offense into Santa Clara this week to take advantage of this suspect San Francisco defense.  The Broncos and 49ers will both get their points in this one, and this 46.5-point total is too short.

When the Broncos put their foot on the gas offensively, they are elite.  They came back from 16-0 down to beat the Rams 30-26 last week for 56 combined points.  They trailed 13-3 in the 2H against the Jaguars but scored the final 17 points to win that game.  Which ever offense is down is going to come back, and this should be a back and forth game from the jump.  The Broncos actually have playmakers for Bo Nix led by the addition of Waddle, and he is getting more and more comfortable each week after a slow start to the season returning from injury.

The Broncos had elite defensive numbers last season but they also benefited from an easy schedule.  Well, that defense has been exposed by the Chiefs, Jaguars and Rams.  The Broncos are allowing a whopping 380.7 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.  They clearly miss Jonathan Cooper, their best pass rusher who remains out.  And there are holes all over the secondary, most notably with teams targeting CB Riley Moss.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cowboys/Texans OVER 47.5

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 29.3 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 27.3 points per game, 387 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season despite facing two poor offenses in the Giants and the Commanders with Marcus Mariota.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. this week.

The Texans are night and day better offensively with star WR Nico Collins in the lineup.  They got in a 36-31 shootout in Week 1 with the Bills for 67 combined points.  Collins had 7 receptions for 75 yards and a TD in the loss.  The Texans have been lost without him the last two weeks.  But Collins returns this week, and I expect this Houston offense to thrive against the worst defense they have faced this season in the Cowboys this week.

The Texans have regressed defensively this season and are no longer the best defense in the NFL.  A big reason is the injuries at LB with Al-Shaair and his backup in Ossai.  They are also without another starting LB in To'oTo'o, and fellow starting LB Jake Hansen is questionable.  There is a clear hole in the middle of their defense that the Cowboys can exploit.

Dak Prescott is 6-0 OVER n his last six starts against AFC opponents.  The Cowboys are 9-2 OVER in indoor games over the last two seasons and going over the total by an avreage of 9.7 points per game.  Any Dallas total in the 40's indoors is too low.  They just had a 53.5-point total with the Ravens last week after a 51.5-point total with the Commanders the week prior.  This total of 47.5 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Rams/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Rams are going to come out angry with a point to prove on Sunday.  They have opened 1-2 this season after coming into the year as the Super Bowl favorites.  They also want revenge from blowing a 26-7 lead to the Eagles last year and losing after having their potential game-winning FG at the buzzer blocked.

The Rams still look like the best team in the NFL in my opinion despite their record.  Their numbers are elite, averaging 417.7 yards per game and 6.5 per play on offense while allowing just 272.7 yards per game and 4.6 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 145 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play this season.

Last week's fluke loss to the Broncos has them undervalued.  They outgained the Broncos 482 to 257, or by 225 yards.  The Broncos got every call down the stretch and overcame at 16-0 halftime deficit thanks to some help from the refs.  When the Rams get up big again this week, they will not take their foot off the gas.

After sitting out the last two weeks, Puka Nacua is expected back in the lineup to give Matthew Stafford the comfort he needs.  This is the best offense in the NFL in their current state with as healthy as they are on that side of the ball right now.  And the defense is still balling out even without Donald and Garrett.  It's one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL, and they do get S Kinchens back this week.

The Eagles are big frauds.  They are 2-1 SU by 0-3 ATS and easily could have lost all three games.  They needed to stop a 2-point conversion to preserve their 24-22 win over the lowly Commanders in Week 1.  They needed a late TD to beat the lowly Titans 24-20 on the road.  And they just lost to Case Keenum and the Bears on Monday Night Football 27-7 and were thoroughly outplayed throughout.

Now the Eagles are on a short week and the injury report is gloomy for them.  An already hapless offense that was held to 7 points by the Bears last week just got even worse.  After losing AJ Brown in the offseason, now the Eagles will be without star WR DeVonta Smith this week with a hamstring injury.  They are also without TE Dallas Goedert and WR Hollywood Brown.  Jalen Hurts will be throwing the ball to Wicks, Lemon and several other guys you've never heard of before.  This offense has no chance of keeping pace with the Rams.

The Eagles have a great defense on paper, but unfortunately it has not looked nearly as good on the field.  Allowing 22 points to Washington, 20 to the Titans and 27 to the Bears to this point is very poor when you consider those are three of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Bears went for 375 yards on them with Keenum under center.  Now the Eagles are down two starters this week in LB Zack Baun and SS Marcus Epps.  You can run on the Eagles as they are allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game.  The Rams will have a ton of success on the ground in this one.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* White Sox/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +140

The Chicago White Sox have a big advantage on offense over the Cleveland Guardians.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game compared to 4.2 runs per game for the Guardians.  Cleveland was fortunate in close games this season, and its luck will run out in the playoffs.

Chicago outscored Houston 13-6 while sweeping the ALWC series.  They didn't look intimidated at all and looked like they belong.  Now they have their sights set on revenge on the Guardians, who stole the division from them.  This will be the ultimate revenge to knock them out of the playoffs.

It started with a 3-0 victory by the White Sox in Game 1 in which the Guardians were held to 3 hits.  The Guardians are rusty after having a week off, and now they'll be playing just their 2nd game since September 27th, and it will be hard to see them finding their groove offensively with so much time off.

Now they must face a tandem that has been a nemesis for them all season.  Anthony Kay will start Game 2 for the White Sox.  Kay has a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings against the Guardians in 2026 alone.  Sean Burke will take over for Kay.  Burke has a 1.04 ERA in 17 innings against the Guardians in 2026.

Gavin Williams is getting way too much respect for Cleveland in Game 2.  He is 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA in 32 starts this season while allowing 28 homers.  Williams is 1-2 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in seven career starts against the White Sox.  That includes 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four career home starts against Chicago, allowing 11 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  Bet the White Sox in Game 2 Monday.

15* Falcons/Saints ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 48

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers last week in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I don't think it's being factored into the total enough this week, either.

Penix Jr. has thrown for 3,013 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers last week.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.

The Saints are a tired team.  They lost 31-30 (OT) to the Lions in Week 1.  They came back late to beat the Ravens 24-17 in Week 2.  And last week they blew a 4th quarter lead in a 35-27 shootout loss to the Raiders.  This New Orleans offense is solid with QB Tyler Shough and proven weapons in Olave, Johnson and Vele leading them to 27.0 points per game and 382.7 yards per game through three weeks.  But the defense is in shambles right now.

The Saints are without WLB Carl Granderson and his backup in WLB Anfernee Jennings.  They are without starting MLB Kaden Ellis, and starting RILB Pete Werner is questionable after leaving the loss to the Raiders.  So they are potential down their 3 starting LB's, which isn't going to go well for them up against the best RB in the league in Robinson.  He is going to have a monster game against. New Orleans defense that allows 27.7 points per game.  The Saints will have to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Falcons/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +3

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers last week in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I don't think it's being factored into the line enough this week, either.

Penix Jr. has thrown for 3,013 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers last week.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.

While the Falcons have a massive rest advantage here playing last Thursday, the Saints are a tired team with three straight games that went down to the wire.  They lost 31-30 (OT) to the Lions in Week 1.  They came back late to beat the Ravens 24-17 in Week 2.  And last week they blew a 4th quarter lead in a 35-27 shootout loss to the Raiders.

While the Falcons are one of the healthiest, freshest teams in the NFL, the Saints are starting to see injuries pile up.  They are without two starting offensive linemen on the left side of their line, including their best in LT Kelvin Banks Jr.  WR Jordyn Tyson remains on IR.  RB Travis Etienne who they just gave big money to this offense just went on IR after suffering an injury against the Raiders.  That leave she washed up Alvin Kamara to get the bulk of the reps at RB.

Defensively, the Saints are without WLB Carl Granderson and his backup in WLB Anfernee Jennings.  They are without starting MLB Kaden Ellis, and starting RILB Pete Werner is questionable after leaving the loss to the Raiders.  So they are potential down their 3 starting LB's, which isn't going to go well for them up against the best RB in the league in Robinson.  He is going to have a monster game to lead the Falcons to victory against a New Orleans defense that allows 27.7 points per game.  Bet the Falcons Monday.