Home court and Indiana’s offensive firepower are the biggest reasons to back the Fever over Golden State on Wednesday. Indiana previously beat the Valkyries 90-82 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this season, with Caitlin Clark scoring 22 points to go along with nine assists. Clark was instrumental once again as Aliyah Boston dominated the paint with 20 points and 16 rebounds. Indiana lost the rematch in Golden State by only two points, so both games were extremely close with the home team winning each.

Indiana will head into this matchup with plenty of confidence after blowing out Las Vegas 109-75 on Sunday. Kelsey Mitchell paced the Fever with 27 points, while Clark added 12 points, seven rebounds and six assists in just 27 minutes. Golden State will have to guard all three of those players effectively, along with Boston, while also staying out of foul trouble. Indiana showed how tough it can be to stop when it moves the ball like that with Mitchell, Clark and Boston all on the court.

Golden State has been one of the best teams in the WNBA over the last month by going 7-1, but its defensive efficiency is why. The Valkyries rank near the bottom of the league in scoring and assists this season, which is why they are playing their fifth game of a five-game road trip. Indiana is healthier than it has been all season and will be heading back home to start a four-game homestand. This could be asking a lot of Golden State’ defense to limit Indiana in the mid-90s considering how well they shoot the ball.

Indiana is at its best when it can score before Golden State’ defense gets set. Clark can facilitate for teammates in transition, Mitchell can exploit openings with the dribble drive and Boston is a reliable scorer at the rim. Indiana should also have an advantage with bench scoring thanks to Sophie Cunningham, who can stretch the floor if Golden State goes deep into its rotation.

The home-court advantage is just enough for the Fever in my opinion. Indiana should be able to create enough shot opportunities late to avoid losing to the surprising Valkyries and end their winning streak.

Jim's Play: 622. Ind Fever

England’s best path to victory starts with the overall size, depth and ability to attack Argentina from different angles. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have shouldered most of the scoring responsibilities so far, but this England team can also hurt you with Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon and its fullbacks. Expect that diversity to make it difficult for Argentina to sit deep and focus on stopping just one player.

England’s midfield battle will likely be determinant. Declan Rice provides enough physicality to disrupt Argentina in the buildup while Bellingham can surge forward to attack the space around Argentina’s own holding midfielders. Messi poses the biggest threat, but Argentina has already identified England’s size up the middle as one of their biggest challenges heading into this match.

As impressive as Messi has been, England still has the defensive tools to limit his impact. It won’t be able to completely take him out of the game, but England can use its athleticism to crowd the middle of the park, force Argentina wide and make Messi receive the ball further away from goal. Throw in Jordan Pickford in goal and England has the experience of multiple players who have excelled in big knockout games.

Argentina is averaging three goals per game in knockout wins over Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland, so England will need to limit the chances early. That said, Argentina has also conceded five goals combined over those three matches. If England pushes forward and uses its pace and movement on the counter, there will be openings to exploit – especially if Argentina’s fullbacks get caught upfield.

The good news for England is that it has already faced treacherous knockout opponents in Mexico and Norway, winning each game. This experience will bode well if the match is close late. Thomas Tuchel has talked about simplifying the message and preparing his team to simply play England’s style of soccer rather than getting caught up in this rivalry’s history.

Expect England to remain compact, clog the middle of the field and limit Argentina’s opportunities through central combinations. When attacking, look for those opportunities to come through Kane, Bellingham and Saka.

Jim's Play: 225620. England (Goal Line)