Rotation #953: MLB Thursday OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:45 ET - Expected pitching match-up is Logan Webb versus Ryne Nelson. Note that Nelson is struggling early this season and the Giants have hitters with experience against him. In fact, 6 of the 7 that do have gone 11 of 25 against him for a .440 batting average. As for Webb, he is off a solid start but got hit hard (and was fortunate) in his most recent home start and that was preceded by a rough road outing too. Also, the Diamondbacks have a lot of batters with plenty of experience against him so he might not be fooling many guys with his repertoire of pitches in this one. That said, the value is with the over here also because of the bullpens. Currently the Giants bullpen ERA ranks near the bottom of the majors and the Diamondbacks pen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack. Arizona is off a 5-3 loss but had won 5 of 7 games leading into that one. Also, the Dbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game on the season and that includes 5 runs per game last 9 games. The Giants have not hit well early this season overall but have scored an average of nearly 5 runs per game last 7 games and are trending the right direction with wins in 4 of their last 7 games. Interestingly, SF has allowed an average of 7 runs per game this season when coming off a win in their prior game! Arizona has scored an average of 6.5 runs this season when off a loss. I expect similar results here and I expect Nelson's struggles against a number of the SF hitters to continue here. We get a low total because of long-term SF numbers in home games but this one sets up perfectly to get into double digits in runs. OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco

Rotation #224429: UEFA Europa League: OVER 3.5 +100 in Atalanta vs Liverpool @ 3 ET - With Atalanta having a 3-0 lead because of the 1st leg, Liverpool has no choice but to go for it here and throw caution to the wind. Remember, the Reds have done this before - completely turning it around after an ugly 1st leg - and, though it won't be easy don't be surprised if the Reds do it again. If nothing else, it should set up for an exciting affair because Liverpool will be on the attack but this exposes them at the back also. The last time they visited Atalanta they won 5-0. Also, I really like the way this one sets up. The Reds are off B2B losses that were both at home but now this is the first of 4 away matches for Liverpool. They are not home again until May but sometimes this type of scheduling quirk completely refocuses a club and I look for them to come out strong and firing on all cylinders. Jota has been back (sparingly, last 2 matches) but is ramping up and could (should!) play an even bigger role here. Also, I like the fact that both home defeats (shockingly!) were shutout losses for the Reds. I expect them to be utterly relentless here in terms of possession and attacking and they will score big here but should also allow at least 1 goal as clean sheets have just not been there for the Reds plus they are going to be so aggressive on the attack. So perhaps a 4-1 result and this 2-leg tie eventually decided on penalties. Or could it be, for Liverpool, a disappointing 3-1 win (they must win here by at least 3) or 2-2 draw or even 3-2. Looking at this match from all angles I feel the over 3.5 at even money offers the best wagering opportunity here! OVER 3.5 +100 in Atalanta

Rotation #215221: UEFA Europa Conference League: OVER 2.5 -130 in Lille vs Aston Villa @ 12:45 ET - Aston Villa won the 1st Leg by a 2-1 final but Lille was able to create plenty of scoring chances and, in the opinion of many, deserved at least a draw in that battle. Now, on their home pitch and trailing by a goal on the aggregate, Lille is sure to be even more aggressive than they were in the 1st Leg. The result will be plenty of scoring chances but also will open things up for a dangerous Aston Villa club on the counter-attack. Aston Villa has scored an average of 2 goals per match in their last 7 matches across all competitions. Lille has both scored and conceded in 6 straight matches! But a 1-1 draw is unacceptable to them here as they already trail by a goal because of the 1st leg result. That is why you would see a strong push from Lille even with the counterattack risk and I can not foresee this match ending with anything less than a 2-1 final. Lille has fresh legs too since they have not played since last week's match with Aston Villa. Lille has scored multiple goals in 7 of last 8 on their home pitch and the only match they did not was certainly impacted by the fact it was a 2nd Leg match in which they already led 3-0. The point is this French Ligue 1 club is particularly strong on the attack on their home pitch and, down 2-1 in this battle, they will respond well here but Aston Villa makes them pay on the counterattack. Asking for 3 goals here is not asking too much! OVER 2.5 -130 in Lille