Alex Smart |
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Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. Testing 15-3 all sports run including a longer term $75000.00 plus dime player run! |
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | Apr 19, 2024 #Mariners vs #Rockies |
#Mariners -127 at circa |
P |
Play Type: Premium | ||
The Mariners have momentum entering this game having won 3 straight, while their hosts Colorado have lost 5 straight and are fade material in their current form. SEATTLE is 26-10 against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Mariners will send Emerson Hancock (1-2, 7.98 ERA) in the first of three games at Colorado while the Rockies will counter with Dakota Hudson (0-3, 4.15). Hancock was smacked around for eight earned runs in 3 1/2 innings at Milwaukee on April 7 but pitched well in a 4-1 loss to the Cubs on Saturday and deserves respect here according to my early season pitcher vs batting order projections. MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SEATTLE) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a very bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season are 43-9 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. MLB team (SEATTLE) - AL team with a poor SLG (.410 or less) against a good NL starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 to 1.300), starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 25-8 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors . Play on Seattle to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NBA | Apr 19, 2024 Bulls vs Heat |
Heat -1½ -110 at YouWager |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
In a game like this the physicality and die heard defense that ranks 3rd in NBA in ppg allowed gives the the Heat an advantage. The Bulls rank 16th in the league in D, and their offense has generally been sub standard ranking 22nd in ppg output. MIAMI is 22-10 ATS in April games over the last 3 seasons. NBA Home teams (MIAMI) - after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 34-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors Play on Miami to cover |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NBA | Apr 19, 2024 Kings vs Pelicans |
OVER 210 -115 |
Lost $115.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
The Kings are off a conclusive victory last time out, vs Golden State by a 118-94 count. Note: SACRAMENTO L/16 after allowing 105 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored. Meanwhile, the Pelicans lost a 110-106 battle to the experienced Lakers last time out, but Im betting on them being more aggressive here tonight offensively which in turn will help us see the combined score eclipse this offering. Brown L/42 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of SACRAMENTO has seen a combined average of 230.2 ppg scored. The nine most recent meetings in this series have all eclipsed this totals offering and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight. NEW ORLEANS L/72 games versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored. SACRAMENTOs L/41 in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons haver seen a combined average of 232.8 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO L/24 in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO L/12 in road games when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SACRAMENTO) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 65-37 OVER L/27 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the over |
SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). |