My selection is on New York moneyline over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Bears are receiving heaps of praise after Monday’s upset win over the Eagles, with third-string journeyman Case Keenum at quarterback no less. I think Ben Johnson’s squad is overvalued in this spot, with Tyson Bagent expected to take over the reins under center. The Jets hung tough in Detroit last Sunday but ultimately lost, falling to 1-2 on the season. I’ve seen enough positives from New York to warrant a wager here as it looks to spring the upset in Chicago. For the Bears this is a classic letdown spot as they play their third straight game at home and are expected to win. Take New York (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

You could argue that the Broncos were gift-wrapped a much-needed home victory over the Rams last Sunday night, rallying from a 16-0 deficit to win a thriller 30-26. Regardless how that victory came it has to have Denver feeling much less pressure as it enters this road test against the undefeated 49ers on Sunday. The Broncos still can't be happy about the way they played in their only previous road game of the season, as they were blasted 31-10 on the road against the Chiefs back in Week 1. I'm confident we'll see them make amends here. Some are even going so far as to anoint 49ers QB Brock Purdy as a potential MVP candidate after they delivered a third straight victory to open the season last week. I think it's important to keep things in perspective at this early stage of the season. San Francisco's three wins have come against a Rams team that has looked out of sorts and dealt with self-inflicted travel issues in Australia back in Week 1, the Dolphins who might just be one of the least talented NFL teams in recent memory and the Cardinals who I do think have plenty of upside but are still in the midst of a rebuild under a new coaching regime. The Niners are dealing with injury concerns on both sides of the football while the Broncos enter Week 4 relatively healthy. I see this as a statement game for a Denver team that has Super Bowl aspirations - much like its early October matchup in Philadelphia last year when it delivered a victory over another high-profile NFC team. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on Arizona over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Giants enter this game with the better overall record, I don't think there's any question it's the Cardinals that appear to have more upside through three weeks of the season. I really liked the fight Arizona showed in last week's loss but ATS cover on the road against the 49ers. Bettors wanted no part of the Cards after their blowout loss at home against Seattle in Week 2. Keep in mind, the Seahawks had extra time to prepare for that matchup after opening the season on a Wednesday. That's not to mention the fact that the Cards were in a clear letdown after pulling off a road upset of the Chargers in Week 1. The situation on offense is bad enough for the Giants that they elected to sign Vikings cast-off QB J.J. McCarthy. Last week's win over Tennessee had everything to do with the ineptness of the Titans and very little to do with New York's own crisp play. That was an ugly game all around that to put bluntly, someone had to win. While the Giants might have had a chance to compete this year with a healthy Jaxson Dart at quarterback, I fully expect them to quickly fall well back of the pack with Jameis Winston running what already looks like a broken offense (the fact that they're bent on featuring RB Cam Skattebo as the focal point is the biggest red flag). Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on New England plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a fairly straight-forward handicap for me in Week 4. The Patriots looked good enough in their Week 2 blowout victory over the Steelers to give me pause as I considered backing the Jaguars in what set up as a smash spot last Sunday. Predictably, New England ended up losing that game and it wasn't close. So now the majority of bettors are off the Pats. It's not surprising to see the Bills as a considerable favorite here - after all, it doesn't get much higher-profile than Buffalo in today's NFL and here it is off to a 3-0 SU and ATS start. Of course, the Bills victory in Week 3 was anything but straight-forward. The Chargers had them on the ropes for part of that contest but Buffalo found a way to not only win but cover the lofty pointspread as well in one of the more improbable ATS victories (given the way the game played out) in recent memory. I don't think this game is going to be a slam dunk for Buffalo by any means. Division games have a tendency to be tightly-contested and the Pats have proven they can give the Bills all they can handle in recent years (each of the last six meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less). For Buffalo, it will be awfully difficult to avoid a letdown of sorts after three straight wins including two in a row at the brand new Highmark Stadium. With bettor sentiment as low as possible when it comes to the Pats, we'll grab all the points we can get in this spot. Take New England (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

The Flyers are off to a tough 0-1-2 start but have been getting better with each game, most recently dropping a 3-2 overtime decision at home against a desperate Carolina team (that was off to an 0-2 start) on Saturday. The Lightning have played just two games, losing on the road against the Rangers before bouncing back with a 3-1 home win over the Capitals. Tampa Bay caught Washington in a clear letdown spot (playing on back-to-back nights) after it delivered a blowout win in Carolina on Friday. Of note, the Bolts faced just 21 shots on goal in that relatively easy victory. I expect the Flyers to provide more resistance on Monday as they look to get over the hump and earn their first victory of the season. We'll grab the goal-and-a-half insurance as the price is reasonable. Take Philadelphia +1.5 goals (8*).

ALDS Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland over Chicago at 5 pm et on Monday.

The Guardians have the right guy on the mound to even up this series at a game apiece on Monday as they hand the ball to Gavin Williams. He's pitched well against the current White Sox lineup throughout his career and obviously enjoyed a terrific season but didn't earn the Game 1 start because of rookie Parker Messick's exploits during his debut campaign. Anthony Kay starts for Chicago. He actually has terrific numbers against the Guardians as a whole but the only two Cleveland hitters that have seen a significant number of at-bats against the left-hander are Travis Bazzana and Bryan Rocchio and they've combined to go a solid 7-for-20. The Guardians have the bullpen edge in this game as well. Look for them to make amends for their no-show in the series-opener. Take Cleveland (10*).