The set-up: I like the Pirates to build off their 4-1 win over the Giants in yesterday’s series opener. San Francisco has struggled with offensive consistency to open the 2019 campaign, and facing a motivated Jameson Taillon at home isn’t what the doctor ordered to get it turned around. The visitors counter with the volatile Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Holland (1-2, 4.09 ERA) most recently gave up four runs off four hits with four walks over six innings in a loss to Colorado on Sunday. The 32 year old has allowed a home run in each of his four outings thus far this season. 

Taillon (0-2, 3.43) gave up three runs over six innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. Chicago on Monday. Taillon was 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA last year, including posting a sharp 2.99 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is an atrocious 22-46 (-13.8 units) in its last 68 as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Pittsburgh is 27-8 (+13.8 units) in its last 35 as a favorite of -150 or more. This one has rout written all over it.

Pittsburgh Pirates

10* play

The set-up: So far home ice has meant everything in this series. The Capitals easily took both Games 1 and 2 at home, before the Hurricanes returned the favor on their home ice. Both teams followed a same regular season pattern in that they started slowly and then came on like “gang busters” to end the regular season. It wouldn’t be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win this game, but as stated off the top, so far “home ice” has been a big difference maker in this series and I see no reason at all for that pattern to snap here.   

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is just 3-8 in its last 11 after back-to-back home victories, while Washington is 35-13 (+19.7 units) in its last 48 after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, lay this reasonable price.

Washignton Capitals

10* play

The set-up: The Spurs took Game 1, 101-96, before Denver took Game 2 by a score of 114-105. The Spurs scored the 118-108 home win in Game 3 and I believe this pattern will continue as I look for Denver to now respond in Game 4. 

The pick: These teams are very evenly matched and it wouldn’t be very difficult to write a convincing argument for either of them. For me it comes down to the Nuggets being th more motivated side here, as well as the fact that the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Also note that Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by ten points or more. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: Milwaukee halted a three-game losing streak with a 5-0 win yesterday, but I think that Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers offer great value to bounce back in the finale today vs. Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers.

The pitchers: Woodruff, who is 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA has been decent so far, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Kershaw is 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA, who gave up a single home run in his first start back: "Definitely a good first outing back," Kershaw said. "I'll take that, especially the way we ended it. It was a fun night all around, other than that first inning. Definitely helps me remember I can do it. Any time first time out, you just want to make sure you can get hitters out again. 'You can do this, you can succeed. Do it efficiently.' Things to work on, which is good, but overall, a good first step."

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is a huge 66-33 (+12.4 units) in its last 99 “day” games, while Milwaukee is interestingly only 23-34 (-6.4 units) in its last 57 as a home underdog. Look for Kershaw to continue his progression and lay the short price.

LA Dodgers

10* play