Bryan Power Bryan Power
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Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 21, 2020
Phillies vs Nationals
+1½ -109 at pinnacle
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Run Line Washington (6:05 ET): First off, be sure to note that we’re playing the Nationals on the RUN LINE here (+1.5). While it’s been quite the disappointing season overall for the World Series Champs, perhaps the most frustrating thing is an 0-6 head to head record with the division rival Phillies. Even that record up and they might very well still be viable for the playoffs heading into the final week of the regular season. I believe they’re going to get AT LEAST one in this series, so take them on the RL Monday just to be safe. 

Now Washington did play a doubleheader on Sunday. Despite allowing just two runs in 14 innings, they had to settle for a split with Miami. The Nationals lost the first game 2-1 before roaring back to take the second game 15-0. It was their second shutout of the series, although they still ended up dropping three of five overall to the Marlins (teams played two doubleheaders). I realize that Anibal Sanchez (Monday’s starter) has mostly struggled in 2020, but he’ll be facing a severely depleted Phillies lineup tonight.

The Phillies were already without J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins from their every day lineup. So you can imagine the feeling when Bryce Harper exited Sunday’s game vs. Toronto (a 6-3 loss) with back tightness. Harper’s status is questionable for Monday and beyond. The Phils will have to heavily lean on starter Zach Wheeler tonight, but the problem is he’s 6-10 all-time vs. the Nats with a 4.71 ERA in 19 starts. The Phillies are a sub-.500 team on the road this year, not to mention 31 games under the L3 seasons! 8* Run Line Washington

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 21, 2020
Cardinals vs Royals
-169 at betonline
Play Type: Top Premium

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Cardinals can easily end up finishing fifth in the National League’s playoff bracket. But that would likely mean a first round matchup with the Padres. The division (NL Central) also remains in play for the Cards entering the final week of the season. But they’ll need a big push to overtake the Cubs, who are 3.5 games in front of them. Then you have the matter of the two teams right behind St. Louis - Cincinnati & Milwaukee - both of whom could knock the Redbirds right out of the postseason picture. The bottom line is that the Cards really need to dominate this series with the Royals. 

I like their chances Monday behind Adam Wainwright, who has a 6-2 TSR w/ a 2.87 ERA and 0.975 WHIP. Wainwright is coming off four consecutive quality outings, one of which was a complete game. He’s also pitched well in the past vs. Kansas City, his most common AL opponent, going 5-2 w/ a 3.96 ERA in 13 appearances. The Cardinals come into this series having just taken four straight in a five-game series from another last place team (Pittsburgh). They should have no issues beating another “cellar-dweller.” Last month, they took two of three from the Royals at home. 

Over the weekend, Kansas City did St. Louis no favors as it was swept in Milwaukee. When not facing the Pirates or Tigers, the Royals are just 3-10 this month. With no realistic playoff aspirations, they should be “easy prey” for the Redbirds as I don’t have much confidence in Carlos Hernandez, who allowed three home runs in three innings in his big league debut. Somehow the Royals managed to win that game (all 3 HR’s were solo shots), but they won’t be that fortunate this time around. 8* St. Louis

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Sep 21, 2020
Stars vs Lightning
OVER 5 -127 Tie
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Over Stars/Lightning (8:05 ET): The Stars continue to defy the odds as they took Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, 4-1. It was their 12th win in the last 16 games, the last nine of which have all come as underdogs on the money line. This run of theirs has caused me great consternation as I’ve been predicting their downfall going all the way back to the Colorado series. Sometimes you need to know when to “cut bait,” I suppose. Here we are turning to the total as I see Game 2 of the SCF going Over. 

Tampa Bay had been rolling through the postseason, losing only four games in the first three rounds. Like Vegas did against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals, the Lightning significantly outshot the Stars in Game 1 (36-20!). But that didn’t matter as Anton Khudobin (.950 save percentage vs. Vegas) stopped all but one of the 36 shots he faced. Khudobin’s run is bound to have a “slip up” or two as no goalie can possibly maintain that kind of save percentage over the long-term, especially when facing so many shots on a consistent basis. 

The Lightning MAY get Steven Stamkos back for Game 2, but regardless I expect a bounce back effort offensively. They are averaging 38.8 shots over the L5 games, an excellent number, yet are also averaging only 2.2 goals over the same frame. Their L4 games have all gone Under or pushed and the Under is now 5-2-2 their L9 games. The Under is 4-0-2 in Dallas’ last six games, so I’d say the Over is “due” to hit for both teams, both of which are averaging 3.0 goals per game this postseason. 10* Over Stars/Lightning


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