Frank Sawyer Frank Sawyer
Frank Sawyer DELIVERED his Top Overlay Bet on Bryson DeChambeau who WON the US Open at 20-1 odds his 14th FIRST PLACE WINNER in his last 70 Golf Reports! DON'T MISS Frank's PGA British Open Betting Report!
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Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 26, 2024
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Total
10 -120
  at  LINEPROS
started

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 6/26:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday was with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox listing both starting pitchers Yariel Rodriguez and Kutter Crawford. Toronto (36-43) snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 9-4 victory against the Red Sox last night. The Blue Jays have played 4 of their 6 games this season Under the Total after scoring nine or more runs in their last game. They have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Boston (43-37) committed three errors in the field last night — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a game where they committed three or more errors. The Red Sox have also played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Take the Under listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports remains on an 8 of 11 (73%) MLB sides run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays despite losing with the NY Yankees last night! Frank is on a 36 of 59 (61%) All-Sports run with featured plays — and he is on a 13 of 21 (62%) MLB run with featured plays! Now Frank furthers his 4 of 6 (67%) MLB Game of the Month/Year sides mark with a 25* MLB Divisional Game of the Month tonight! DO NOT MISS OUT!

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Matchup Selection W/L
PGA  |  Jul 18, 2024
Cameron Smith vs Shane Lowry
Shane Lowry
0½ -135 at BetVegas
Play Type: Premium

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. The Royal Troon Golf Club at the South Ayrshire Coast in Scotland (34 miles south of Glasgow) hosts this tournament for the tenth time. This is a Par 71 track consisting of 7385 yards. Since the Open Championship last tool place here in 2016, 195 yards has been added to the track and nine of the tee boxes have been changed. The Par Five sixth hole is the longest of any British Open at 623 yards. In contrast, the Par Three eighth hole tabled the “Postage Stamp” is only 123 yards. The course ranked the fourth hardest on the PGA Tour in 2016 — and it will test all the clubs in the bag. This classic links course will be windy on the coast. There is a good chance of rain on Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach the 60s during the day so it will be chilly. The fairways are undulated with humps and hollows. Accuracy off the tee is important given the fescue rough that can get thick, gorse bushes, and the 98 deep pot bunkers. The greens consist of Bentgrass/Poa Annua blend that measures a slow 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Averaging at 4500 square feet, the putting surfaces are some of the smallest on the tour. The 156 professionals will compete to make the top 70 (plus ties) to make the cut and play the weekend.

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7196) versus Cameron Smith (7195) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 shots if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:59 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4000 odds to win this tournament. We have been on Lowry often this season — and it would be the regret I would never forget if I did invest in him at these odds when playing in the potentially bad weather in Scotland. The 2019 British Open winner is enjoying a good season. He last played three weeks ago when he finished tied for ninth place at the Travelers Championship. He has four top tens in 2024 including a third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a first place in the partners event with Rory McIlroy at the Zurich Classic. He finished tied for sixth place at the PGA Championship and tied for 19th at the US Open. Lowry’s weakness in his game is his putter but the smaller greens make that less of a factor this week. Lowry is one of the best ball strikers in the world. He ranks 18th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 10th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. When Henrik Stenson won the Open Championship at Royal Troon in 2016, he finished second in the field for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with his 20 under par score. Phil Mickelson finished in second place and was 15th for the week in both those categories. The third-place finisher trailed Mickelson by 11 strokes. Lowry checks many of the boxes of past Open champions (on top of being a past winner). The last seven Open championship winners had won previously in the calendar year. Eight of the last 12 winners were 32 years old or older. This will be Hatton’s 12th British Open — and five of the last six winners had played an Open Championship at least four previous times. Fifteen of the last 18 Open champions finished in ninth place or better in a previous British Open. Lowry has a tie for 12th place and a tie for 21st place at the British Open since his victory in 2019. He also has experience at Royal Troon having played the British Open here in 2016 — and while he missed the cut that year, playing those two rounds in the tournament environment can only help him this week.

Lowry is linked with Cameron Smith for Round One head-to-head props. Smith won the 2022 British Open at the Old Course at St. Andrew’s (and we were on him that week) — but that course plays the opposite of Royal Troon this week. Smith is one of the best putters in the world — but the lag putting that he thrives with is de-emphasized this week with the small greens. Smith is not long or accurate off-the-tee either. He lacks the sample size to qualify for the PGA analytics rankings this year since he is playing the LIV Tour. For some comparison's sake, in his last year on the PGA Tour in 2021-22, he ranked 101st in Driving Distance and 135th in Driving Accuracy. He also ranked 136th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. His stats on the LIV Tour suggest he has only taken a step back in those metrics since then. And while that victory in 2020 at St. Andrews was great, his second-best finish at an Open Championship was tied for 20th place in his six previous British Opens. Take Lowry (7196) versus Smith (7195) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

Matchup Selection W/L
PGA  |  Jul 18, 2024
Tom Kim vs Tyrrell Hatton
Tyrrell Hatton
-128 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. The Royal Troon Golf Club at the South Ayrshire Coast in Scotland (34 miles south of Glasgow) hosts this tournament for the tenth time. This is a Par 71 track consisting of 7385 yards. Since the Open Championship last tool place here in 2016, 195 yards has been added to the track and nine of the tee boxes have been changed. The Par Five sixth hole is the longest of any British Open at 623 yards. In contrast, the Par Three eighth hole tabled the “Postage Stamp” is only 123 yards. The course ranked the fourth hardest on the PGA Tour in 2016 — and it will test all the clubs in the bag. This classic links course will be windy on the coast. There is a good chance of rain on Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach the 60s during the day so it will be chilly. The fairways are undulated with humps and hollows. Accuracy off the tee is important given the fescue rough that can get thick, gorse bushes, and the 98 deep pot bunkers. The greens consist of Bentgrass/Poa Annua blend that measures a slow 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Averaging at 4500 square feet, the putting surfaces are some of the smallest on the tour. The 156 professionals will compete to make the top 70 (plus ties) to make the cut and play the weekend.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Tyrrell Hatton (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hatton (7150) versus Tom Kim (7122) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:47 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. I spent a significant amount of time deliberating between Tommy Fleetwood and Hatton who have similar profiles — but with Fleetwood priced at +2200 odds at DraftKings, let’s follow the primary point of the Top Overlay Bet which is taking advantage of value. Hatton at +3000 is the better Overlay. The 32-year-old is in good form this summer. On the LIV Tour, he followed up by winning the event in Nashville by three strokes against Jon Rahm and US Open winner Bryson DeChambeau by three strokes then finishing in third place last week at Valderrama in Spain. He finished for a tie for ninth place at the Masters and was in the hunt after three days at the US Open before shooting 77 on Sunday of that event. Hatton does not have enough rounds on the PGA Tour to qualify for the analytics rankings in the Shots-Gained, et al categories. When he was on the PGA Tour last season, he ranked 12th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 19th in Scrambling. While he failed to make the cut in his first five majors in his career, he has since made 11 straight cuts at major championships with four top 15s. Hatton checks some interesting boxes regarding the qualities of past Open champions. The last seven winners of the British Open won a previous tournament in the calendar year. Eight of the last 12 winners were 32 years old or older. This will be Hatton’s 12th British Open — and five of the last six winners had played an Open Championship at least four previous times. Hatton has two top-sixes at the British Open along with a tie for 11th place and a tie for 20th place — and 15 of the last 18 Open champions finished in ninth place or better in a previous British Open. Finally, Hatton has experience at Royal Troon having played the British Open here in 2016 when he finished tied for fifth place in his best result at a major championship. Eight years later, he will play with confidence this week.

Hatton is linked with Tom Kim for Round One head-to-head props. I like Kim — and we were on him last week when he finished tied for 15th place at the Scottish Open. I’m not sure Kim’s game sets up well for this course. He ranks 57th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks 73rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. When Henrik Stenson won the Open Championship at Royal Troon in 2016, he finished second in the field for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with his 20 under par score. Phil Mickelson finished in second place and was 15th for the week in both those categories. The third-place finisher trailed Mickelson by 11 strokes. Kim also ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 119th in Bogey Avoidance — so he may get into trouble if he misses the small greens this week. Kim finished in second place at the British Open last year — but that may place some pressure regarding expectations on him for this event, especially in Round One. As mentioned above, British Open veterans tend to perform better. Kim has not won an event on the PGA Tour either — so he does not check the box of the last seven Open championship winners having won previously in the calendar year. Take Hattan (7150) versus Kim (7149) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

Matchup Selection W/L
PGA  |  Jul 18, 2024
Ludvig Aberg vs Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa
-129 at linepros
Play Type: Premium

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. The Royal Troon Golf Club at the South Ayrshire Coast in Scotland (34 miles south of Glasgow) hosts this tournament for the tenth time. This is a Par 71 track consisting of 7385 yards. Since the Open Championship last tool place here in 2016, 195 yards has been added to the track and nine of the tee boxes have been changed. The Par Five sixth hole is the longest of any British Open at 623 yards. In contrast, the Par Three eighth hole tabled the “Postage Stamp” is only 123 yards. The course ranked the fourth hardest on the PGA Tour in 2016 — and it will test all the clubs in the bag. This classic links course will be windy on the coast. There is a good chance of rain on Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach the 60s during the day so it will be chilly. The fairways are undulated with humps and hollows. Accuracy off the tee is important given the fescue rough that can get thick, gorse bushes, and the 98 deep pot bunkers. The greens consist of Bentgrass/Poa Annua blend that measures a slow 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Averaging at 4500 square feet, the putting surfaces are some of the smallest on the tour. The 156 professionals will compete to make the top 70 (plus ties) to make the cut and play the weekend.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7012) versus Ludvig Aberg (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:47 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the British Open is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Outside of Scottie Scheffler, perhaps no one is playing better in the world right now than Morikawa. Since his tie for third place at the Masters in early April, he has finished in the top 23 in ten straight tournaments with a tie for 16th place or better in his last eight events. He has five top fours during this stretch including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship. He settled for a tie for 14th place at the US Open. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play. Morikawa is a great fit for this course. He ranks second on the tour in Driving Accuracy — and while he is not one of the biggest drivers on the tour, he still ranks eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The weakness of his game is his putter — but the smaller greens neutralize the edge the elite putters would have this week. If Morikawa misses the green, he should still be in fine shape since he ranks 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. That said, Morikawa has been playing better with his blade. He finished 11th and 15th in the field at the US Open and the Memorial in Shots-Gained: Putting. He gained strokes versus the field with his blade in six of seven tournaments going into the Travelers Championship two events ago (I did not check how he fared with his putter in his last two events). Morikawa checks plenty of the boxes of many past British Open champions. Four of the last six winners of the Open Championship finished tied for 11th place or better at one of the three previous major championships. Nine of the last 13 past winners played the previous week at the Scottish Open. Morikawa won the British Open in 2021 when it was hosted at Royal St. George — and 15 of the last 18 winners of the Open Championship had previously finished tied for ninth place or better at this tournament.  

Morikawa is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The 24-year-old Swede is a great talent — and I suspect I will be jumping on his bandwagon next season. But this is his first British Open in his young career — and Morikawa was one of the exceptions to win the Open Championship before the age of 32-years-old. Five of the last six winners of the British Open had played at least four previous Open Championships. Aberg competed last week at the Scottish Open — and after leading the way after three rounds, he stumbled on Sunday with a round of 73 which was three over par. Aberg ranks 57th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy — so he might get into trouble with all the dangers off-the-tee. He also ranks 88th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — so if he misses the small greens, he may be vulnerable to more bogeys like he had on Sunday. Take Morikawa (7012) versus Aberg (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
 
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

SERVICE BIO

Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.

Frank uses a rating an 8*, 10*, 20*, 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet (and 8* plays warrant 80% of a standard bet); 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated play with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. For Frank’s futures reports or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which presents his best value play relative to the odds for the event: and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog offer value with its potential big payout. Frank’s signature play his “A-List* release which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities.

Follow Frank on Twitter: @FrankSawyerHS