At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the finals of the German Cup with their 2-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt back on June 10th. Bayer Leverkusen reached the finals of this tournament the day before when they defeated Saarbrucken by a 3-0 score. The 77th DFB-Pokal Cup will be played on a neutral field at Hertha Berlin’s Olympiastadion.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich may have become the best team in Europe once Hanso Flick was appointed manager of the team in early November. The Bavarians were underachieving in league play as they were perhaps a bit listless after seven straight Bundesliga titles. Flick made a few crucial adjustments that re-ignited this team. First, he deployed a 4-1-4-1 formation with a high press. Not only did this force more turnovers but the higher placed backline on the pitch served to force more suboptimal shots from their opponents. Flick also moved Joshua Kimmich from fullback up the pitch to a holding midfield position — and not only did this give more room to operate for this rising superstar but it opened up a starting slot for Phonzie at fullback with the Canadian thriving with the opportunity given his multiple skill set. It is a bounty of riches for this team with a reliable veteran at forward in Thomas Muller, a scoring machine as the attacker in Robert Lewandowski who has 49 goals in all competitions, and then a 19-year freak of an athlete in Alphonso Davies with the Canadian being the fastest player on the field. Bayern Munich easily went on to win their eighth straight Bundesliga title by 17 points and enter this match on a seventeen game winning streak. They won all ten of their matches in the return to play in May while scoring 29 times and conceding just seven goals. Bayer Leverkusen stumbled in the return to play in May as they only won five of their nine matches with three losses. They only outscored their nine opponents by +2 net goals while surrendering nine goals. Die Werkself controlled their own destiny to take one of the four qualifying slots for next fall’s Championship League — but a devastating 2-0 loss at home to a Hertha Berlin team going nowhere blew those chances. Bayer Leverkusen will have to again settle for playing in the Europa League — and that status may degrade their confidence in this match. Die Werkself finished 19 points below Bayern Munich. The weak link for this team is their defense — they allowed just the 8th fewest goals in the Bundesliga this season while dropping to 10th place for expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. The Bavarians are an offensive machine who scored 100 goals this season — and while the metrics (unsurprisingly) call for regression, their expected goals still amount to a whopping 92.85 figure.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two matches in the Bundesliga — but Bayern Munich won the last encounter between these two teams by a 4-2 score playing at Die Werkself’s Bay Arena. The Bavarians won their 19th DFB-Pokal Cup last year when they defeated RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score. Bayern Munich also has serious Champions League aspirations — so it will be all systems go for this juggernaut as they look to stay fresh for that competition next month while defending their German national championship crown. Bayer Leverkusen proved once again that they are not yet in the class of Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and this Bayern Munich organization after their disappointing finish. 25* Soccer ESPN2 Match of the Month with Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200193). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W13-D13-L6) looks to continue their hot run following a 1-0 win at Aston Villa last Saturday. Arsenal (W11-D13-L8) has won their last two matches after they defeated Norwich City at home on Wednesday by a 4-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have won all three of their matches since the return to action with clean sheets in all three matches with a low 1.23 expected goals allowed combined mark in those contests. Wolverhampton stymies Big Scoring chances (defined as those opportunities with at least a 35% success rate). They lead the EPL by allowing just 24 non-penalty kick Big Chances this season and they have held their opponents to just 0.75 Big Chances per match since match week 25. Their recent improvement in their already outstanding defense has been the return of Willy Boly to their backline who has missed much of the season to injury. Overall, the Wolves have the lost expected goals allowed mark (xGA) in the EPL. They are also 5th in the league with 52 Big Chances (non-PK) of their own. Arsenal has held their last two opponents scoreless while scoring six times — but four of those goals could be accurately described as gifts by the opposition (including three bizarre goaltender flubs). The Gunners are 8th in the EPL table but the expected points projections (xPTS) drops them to 11th. Now they go back on the road where they have only won three times this year — and they have won only one of their seven matches on the road under new manager Mikel Arteta. They are being outscored in the xG projections on the road by a 1.18 xG to 1.76 xGA margin. Furthermore, Arsenal tends to start fast but fade at the end of their matches. They have a net expected goal differential (xGD) of -4.88 in the final 30 minutes of a match — and Wolverhampton has a +9.64 xGD mark in the final 30 minutes of their games. The Wolves have won all three of their matches since the return with goals scored in the second half.

FINAL TAKE: The reverse fixture between these two teams resulted in a 1-1 draw despite the Wolves generating 25 shots in their counter-attack against an undisciplined Arsenal side. This is a terrible situation for the Gunners as they are playing their fifth match on the road since the return to play over eighteen days. Wolverhampton has had an entire week off while Arsenal has played two more matches during that break. 20* EPL Arsenal-Wolverhampton NBC-Sports Network Special with the Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester United (200186) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200185). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W14-D10-L8) remained unbeaten in their last fifteen matches across all competitions with their 3-0 victory at Brighton and Hove Albion on Tuesday. Bournemouth (W7-D6-L19) are winless in their last seven matches after they lost at home to Newcastle United on Wednesday by a 4-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is simply a mess right now — and they look like they are resigned to accept relegation. They have lost all three of their matches since the return to action while scoring just one time and conceding seven goals. The Cherries have been an aggressive team under manager Eddie Howe which has spurred some exciting soccer for a midlevel team — if they win, it is usually because they outscore their opponent in higher-scoring contests. Yet Bournemouth has been tepid in their attack with just two shots on target in their last three matches and only one Big Chance with an estimated success rate of at least 35% (according to the deeper metrics) — that latter mark is tied for fewest in the EPL since the restart. The Cherries will still be without forward Callum Wilson who is serving his second game due to suspension. His mate up top in Joshua King is in a complete funk as he has been ineffective either due to a loss of confidence or a loss of spirit in this doomed season (or both). Bournemouth finds themselves tied with Aston Villa with the second-fewest points in the league. They are in the bottom-five in both expected goals (xG) and expected goals allowed (xGA). Frankly, the problems have manifested themselves long before the restart as they have managed to produce only 11 points since November. Now they go on the road where they have lost seven straight EPL matches with three of these contests being by at least two goals. Manchester United is one of the hottest teams in the EPL with a W3-D1-L0 mark in their four contests since last month’s return to play. The issue for the Red Devils is whether they will win this match by at least two goals. Since they acquired Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes in the winter transfer window, Man United are unbeaten in all thirteen of his matches played with nine victories and nine clean sheets while scoring 31 goals and conceding just four goals. Fernandes has been just what the doctor ordered to provide cohesion in the middle of the field. The restart also afforded him the opportunity to begin playing with both midfielders Paul Pogba and forward Marcus Rashford who have spent much of the season injured. Suddenly, the Red Devils have a bounty of scoring talent. Fernandes and Pogba have combined for three goals and one assist since the return to play — and I have not even mentioned the hat trick Anthony Martial pulled off two matches ago against Sheffield United. But it is the play on defense that makes this Man United team so dangerous. The Red Devils have allowed only two goals while registering six clean sheets in their last eight matches in the EPL. Since match week 25, Man United is allowing only 1.0 Big Chances per match — and they have allowed both the fewest shots and the fewest Big Chances since the return to action last month. They return home to Old Trafford where they have won each of their last three matches by at least two goals with eight combined goals scored and none conceded over that stretch. The Red Devils have five straight clean sheets at home having not surrendered a goal at home since January 22nd. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) at home of 0.80 is 3rd best in the EPL. And they have scored 13 goals in their last four home matches.

FINAL TAKE: The cherry on top of this situation (pun intended) is that Man United will not be taking Bournemouth lightly after losing to them on the road in the reverse fixture between these two teams on November 2nd by a 1-0 score. Motivated by revenge and their pursuit of a top-four spot on the EPL table to ensure qualification for next fall’s Championship League, I think the chances of a 3-0 (or better) result are higher than a 1-0 (or 2-1) final score (and we can live with a 2-0/3-1 push). 10* EPL Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Manchester United (200186) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200185). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W16-D6-L10) looks to rebound from a disappointing 3-2 upset loss at West Ham on Wednesday. Watford (W6-D10-L16) comes off a 3-1 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Chelsea was vulnerable to an emotional letdown after pulling off a dramatic 2-1 victory over Man City (which eliminated the two-time defending EPL champions from repeating this season) and then following that up with a 1-0 victory at Leicester City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup last Sunday. Sure enough, this young Blues team traveled on the road to face a counter-attacking Hammers team desperate for a victory as they fight to avoid relegation. Chelsea has still looked very good since the return to play last month with three wins in four matches. They remain very motivated to play well as they are in a dog fight to qualify for one of the four spots for next year’s Champions League. The Blues begin match week 33 in 4th place in the EPL table two points ahead of Manchester United and Wolverhampton. The underlying metrics love this team — while Chelsea sits in 4th place with 54 points, their expected points (xPTS) of 60.38 is 3rd best in the EPL. Those numbers would likely be even better since there without an injured Christian Pulisic for much of the season. The American appears to be the real deal — he leads the EPL in touches inside the box since the return to play last month. The Blues return home to Stamford Bridge where they are W8-D3-L5 this season. They have scored only 24 goals at home this year but the metrics suggest they have been unfortunate in that regard with an expected goals mark (xG) of 37.43. Chelsea’s xPTS at home jump to 37 with them averaging 2.34 xG and allowing just 0.74 xGA — and that +1.60 xG differential is the 2nd best home mark in the EPL this season. With Pulisic healthy and the Blues playing in a 4-3-3 formation that Frank Lampard shifted to midseason (which gets defender Marco Alonso on the pitch who is an effective player in their attack), Chelsea is one of the top teams in the league. Watford had been playing well after manager Javi Garcia was sacked for Nigel Pearson in early December. The Hornets responded by going W4-D2-L1 in their first eight matches under Pearson before things began to slide with them going W1-D1-L4 in their final six matches before the stoppage of play. Since the return, Watford is just W0-D1-L2 while scoring just two goals (with one of those goals being an own-goal by Southampton last Sunday). The Hornets are just listless on offense right now with little energy. Ismaila Carr displayed a glimpse of brilliance when Pearson was appointed but he has been mostly absent since the return to action. Watford simply may not be motivated to play out the string of matches after being quarantined for months — and they do not seem to be overly concerned about their impending relegation with them currently in 17th place by just one point over Bournemouth and Aston Villa. The Hornets have won only one match over their last ten matches while averaging just 1.22 xG. Now they go back on the road where they are W2-D4-L10 in their sixteen EPL matches while averaging just 1.00 xG in those matches. Watford has won only once in their last eight road league matches. The Hornets are not equipped to grind out a lower-scoring match either as they have allowed the 6th most goals in the league this year — and they are tied for allowing the 5th most goals when playing on the road. They have only one clean sheet in their last ten matches.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on November 2nd by a 2-1 score. With the Hornets out-of-form and with their motivation in question, an angry Blues team should bounce-back with a strong effort. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

TThe Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 — more commonly referred to as the Brickyard 400 — takes place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. This 2.5-mile rectangular oval track will require 160 laps to reach this 400-mile race. This race tends to see fewer lead changes so starting position will play an important role. This event also requires a similar aero package as last weekend’s two races at the Pocono Raceway so last week’s results will help inform my selections.

Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites is on Clint Bowyer who Bovada lists at +3300 odds to win this race. Bowyer has been a fade for me most of the summer with him earning just one top-ten finish in nine straight races going into Pocono. But the Stewart-Haas driver had a good weekend with 7th and 8th place finishes in the two races at Pocono. Bowyer has a fast Ford Mustang — and he is a specialist on-road tracks like at the Brickyard which will require the same aerodynamic and tire setups this week. Bowyer likes driving on this racecourse with two straight top-five finishes. He led for 37 laps in 2018 so he is comfortable in the lead. Bowyer is linked with William Byron in head-to-head betting propositions. Byron has not been able to put together a complete race in 2020. Byron’s 7th place finish on Sunday at Pocono was his best result in his last fifteen races. Byron did finish in 4th place here last year but this is still just his third race on the Cup Series for the young driver. He drives a Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports — and a Chevy as not won this race since 2014 after a dominant eleven-year run. Take Bowyer (7657) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Byron (7658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 — more commonly referred to as the Brickyard 400 — takes place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. This 2.5-mile rectangular oval track will require 160 laps to reach this 400-mile race. This race tends to see fewer lead changes so starting position will play an important role. This event also requires a similar aero package as last weekend’s two races at the Pocono Raceway so last week’s results will help inform my selections.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada lists at +1000 to win this race. Blaney underachieved last weekend with 12th and 22nd place finishes at Pocono — but he also registered the 5th-most fastest laps in the field in those races. Blaney was a bit unlucky in those races which help improves his price this week which is exactly the type of situation we are looking for with this Overlay Bet. Blaney had been perhaps the hottest driver on the Cup Series tour with five top-four finishes in his previous six races including a 1st place at the Talledega Superspeedway two weeks ago. Blaney’s Ford has been one of the fastest cars all season for Team Penske. These 2.5-mile superspeedway events reward the fastest cars with the additional straightaway track to push the pedal to the metal. And Blaney’s average finish at the Brickyard has been 9th since he joined Team Penske. Blaney finished 7th here last year while posting the second-most laps with the lead. Blaney is linked with Martin Truex in head-to-head betting propositions. Truex won at the Martinsville Speedway last month but has only finished inside the top-ten once in his next four races with a 6th place result last Saturday at Pocono. Truex has struggled at the Brickyard where he finished in the top-ten only three times in fifteen starts with a subpar 21.33 average finish in those fifteen races. Truex was just 27th at the Brickyard last year after suffering a crash the previous year when he finished 40th. Take Blaney (7620) in head-to-head betting props versus Truex (7619). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 — more commonly referred to as the Brickyard 400 — takes place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. This 2.5-mile rectangular oval track will require 160 laps to reach this 400-mile race. This race tends to see fewer lead changes so starting position will play an important role. This event also requires a similar aero package as last weekend’s two races at the Pocono Raceway so last week’s results will help inform my selections.

Our Best Bet is on Denny Hamlin who is listed at +550 to win this race. Hamlin was my Best Bet to win the Saturday race at Pocono last weekend where he finished 2nd. I got off him on Sunday because I loved Kyle Busch in that situation (finally getting the opportunity for de-facto practice time on the racetrack that has been eliminated this season due to COVID-19 precautions). Busch looked primed to win that race before a late crash ruined his day — and that allowed Hamlin to follow up his 2nd place run by winning the Pocono 350. Hamlin now leads the NASCAR Cup Series with four wins in 2020 while being able to make the case that he is enjoying the best season on this year’s tour. He has won two of his last four races with his victory at the Homestead-Miami Speedway three weeks ago. Hamlin has now finished in the Top-Five in five of his last six races along with six of his last eight races. Hamlin still lacks a Cup Series championship along with a victory at the famed Brickyard — but a win this afternoon maybe the feather in his cap that sets up to later win the NASCAR Cup Series to accomplish both those goals. Hamlin is linked with Martin Truex in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Truex won at the Martinsville Speedway last month but has only finished inside the top-ten once in his next four races with a 6th place result last Saturday at Pocono. Truex has struggled at the Brickyard where he finished in the top-ten only three times in fifteen starts with a subpar 21.33 average finish in those fifteen races. Truex was just 27th at the Brickyard last year after suffering a crash the previous year when he finished 40th. With Hamlin being the premier driver for Joe Gibbs Racing right now, he will likely be given any accommodations in this race if those opportunities arise between teammates. Take Hamlin (7616) in head-to-head betting props versus Truex (7615). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Aston Villa (200009) and Liverpool (200010). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W7-D6-L9) has lost six of their last eight matches after their 1-0 loss at home to Wolverhampton last Saturday. Liverpool (W28-D2-L2) looks to rebound from their 4-0 loss at Manchester City on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds lacked intensity in their showdown with the Cityzens in their first match as reigning English Premier League champions. Liverpool should respond with more focus in their attack this afternoon. They return home where they have won all sixteen of their matches while scoring 44 goals. They also have averaged 2.62 goals-per-game in their thirteen home games against teams outside the Top-Six traditional powers. But with the Reds having nothing else to play for with them being eliminated from the FA Cup and Champions League competitions, don’t be surprised if the loss of vigor on defense that they displayed against Man City continues. Liverpool has lost five of their last nine matches across all competitions going back to before the stoppage of play — and that as many losses as they have experienced in their previous 76 matches combined! The Reds had been playing at an epic level for over a year — they did win the European Champions League last season. The decline seems to have begun. Aston Villa has allowed 14 goals in their last eight matches. The Villans have surrendered 60 goals this season which is the second-most in the EPL — and their expected goals allowed (xGA) worsens at a 64.21 mark which is the worst in the league. Aston Villa has also allowed 33 goals on the road which is last in the league. The Villans have only allowed four goals in their four matches since the return to play — but those results should not be overstated. They opened by facing a slumping Sheffield United team that is defensive-oriented before catching a rusty Chelsea in their first match in Project Restart. They then played an offensively-challenged Newcastle side before playing the counter-attacking Wolves last week. Their sketchy defense should be exposed by the new kings of the league.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 2nd. Liverpool has seen at least three combined goals scored in four straight home matches with at least four goals scored in three of those contests. 10* EPL Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Aston Villa (200009) and Liverpool (200010). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). THE SITUATION: Real Villarreal (W16-D6-L11) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win at Real Betis on Wednesday. Barcelona (W21-D7-L5) has settled for draws in three of their last four matches after a 2-2 draw at home with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE REAL VILLARREAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It has been a disastrous return to play for the reigning La Liga champions who have lost their grip on first place. Barcelona opened Project Restart last month with a two-point lead up on Real Madrid — but after Los Blancos late 1-0 victory over Athletico Bilbao this morning, Barca find themselves seven points behind their arch-rivals. The Blaugranas must win out their remaining five matches while hoping that Real Madrid drops points somewhere — without the benefit of another head-to-head match. Frankly, the writing is on the wall for this team with rumors of internal dissension with new manager Quique Setien who came on in January along with talk that Lionel Messi may be ready to jump ship when his contract expires next season. Antoine Griezmann is mired in a slump which has probably impacted Messi as he is enduring his worst statistical season in terms of efficiency in five seasons. Barcelona has systemic problems right now. They are too reliant on Messi to bail them out of trouble. They have been too slow in building up play when possessing the ball. They have been vulnerable against counter-attacks. And there have been too many issues with their backline that Setien inherited but has been unable to fix. Barca is just 6th in La Liga in fewest goals allowed which is unfamiliar territory for them. This team has not been the victims of bad luck as they lost the expected goals (xG) with Atletico Madrid while holding narrow edges with the xG numbers in their other two matches. The vulnerabilities of the Catalan Giants most often demonstrate themselves when playing on the road against the top teams in the league. Barcelona has won only two of their last eight matches on the road versus a top-ten La Liga opponent while losing three of these matches outright. They are also getting beaten in the xG numbers by a 1.22-0.90 xG margin in those eight road matches. Since Setien has taken over, they are generating 1.55 xG on the road while seeing their home hosts produce a 1.27 xG mark. Those are good numbers but not nearly the elite standard that Barca has set over the last five seasons where they have won four league titles. Real Villarreal was limping before the stoppage of play with three straight losses — but they have returned with a renewed focus by going unbeaten in their six matches with five victories. The Yellow Submarines have only allowed two goals in these six matches while producing five clean sheets. A switch to a 4-4-2 formation by manager Javier Calleja has helped trigger these outstanding defensive numbers by adding a fourth defender in their backline. Real Villarreal is holding their opponents to just 0.92 xG since the switch to a 4-4-2 while their quality in attack up top is still producing 2.06 xG in those games. The Yellow Submarines are also getting these good results against the best that La Liga has to offer. Real Villarreal has a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid along with a nil-nil result with Atletico Madrid and a 2-2 draw with Sevilla (the other teams in the top four of the table) along with a 1-0 win over Getafe. They now find themselves three points out of 4th place with serious Champions League aspirations in the fall. Real Villarreal is one of the mainstays in this league with top-six finishes from 2013 through 2018 before a disappointing 14th place finish last year. They have scored in 21 of their last 22 league matches — and they have also scored in 29 of their last 31 home games against La Liga competition. The Yellow Submarines are producing a healthy 2.16 xG in their sixteen home matches this season while holding their guests to just 1.46 xG.

FINAL TAKE: Real Villarreal will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss to Barcelona at Camp Nou back on September 24th. These are much different less than ten months later with Ernesto Valverde no longer the skipper for Barca and the Yellow Submarines playing their best soccer in years. These two teams played to a 4-4 draw when playing at Real Villarreal’s Estadio de la Ceramica last year — so the home dog will be confident that they can pull the upset this time around. 25* La Liga Sunday beIN Sports Match of the Month with Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W21-D3-L8) enters this match coming off a 4-0 victory at home over Liverpool on Thursday. Southampton (W12-D4-L16) comes off a 3-1 win at Watford last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City may have relinquished their two-season run as English Premier League champions — but they have been an offensive juggernaut and remain motivated to maintain their form with the FA Cup and Champions League titles still at stake later this summer. The Cityzens peppered a strong Liverpool defense with 14 shots while posting an expected goal mark (xG) of 2.99 which suggests that their four goals were not too much of an overachievement against the new champions of the EPL. Man City has scored 13 goals in their four EPL matches since the return to play while posting at least a 2.60 xG mark in three of those games. They also have scored 15 goals in their five overall matches since the return which includes their victory in the FA Cup Quarterfinals last weekend. The Cityzens are averaging a robust 2.56 xG per match in the EPL this season which is their highest mark over the last five seasons. They also lead the league with the most Big Chances of scoring opportunities with an expected success rate of at least 35% since the return to play. Man City averages a robust 3.1 xG in league play this season against opponents that are not in the top seven in the EPL table. But the Cityzens defense is what has held them back from a three-peat in the EPL this year. They entered this match week having allowed the most Big Chances since the return to action. Manager Pep Guardiola’s pressing system creates many scoring opportunities — but it leaves them vulnerable to great scoring chances with counter-attacks. Man City is allowing their home hosts to average 1.42 xGA in league play this year. But they are also generating 2.63 xG in their sixteen road matches in the EPL. The Cityzens have seen 83 combined goals scored in their twenty-two matches against non-Big Six sides for a 3.77 combined goal score total — and they have seen 43 combined goals scored in their 11 road matches in EPL action for a 3.91 combined goal mark. Southampton got two goals from forward Danny Ings in their victory over Watford last Sunday. Ings is challenging for the Golden Boot Award with 18 goals in the EPL this season. He has been galvanized by first-year manager Ralph Hasenhuttl’s commitment to an aggressive high-press which increases scoring opportunities for the Saints. Southampton has scored six goals in their three matches since the return — and this philosophy has worked with them reaching the 40 point threshold in the standings while being safe from relegation by 13 points. But these tactics do make them vulnerable on defense — they have allowed 33 goals at home with an  1.78 goals-against average which is the higher home mark in the EPL. Even after throwing out the Leicester City 9-0 victory at St. Mary’s in the fall as an outlier, the Saints are surrendering 1.50 goals per game at home in the EPL this season. Furthermore, in their five home matches against traditional Big Six opponents (which does not include Leicester City), Southampton has seen 16 combined goals scored.

FINAL TAKE: Manchester City won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 2nd. Southampton is seeing an average of 2.93 xG in their matches this season with 62% of their games finishing Over 2.5 goals. Man City is seeing 3.56 xG combined goal marks in their league matches this season — and that number has increased to a 3.74 xG combined goal mark in their last four contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.