Jack's Free Pick Friday: Tampa Bay Rays +108

The Tampa Bay Rays should be highly motivated for a victory tonight after dropping three consecutive games coming in.  They had 12 hits and 3 walks and managed just 3 runs against the Yankees in Game 1 of this series yesterday.  Look for them to capitalize on more of those scoring opportunities today.

The Rays have the advantage on the mound behind Drew Rasmussen, who is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has allowed just one earned run in 15 innings with 15 K's.  Rasmussen has owned the Yankees, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in three career starts against them while firing 18 2/3 shutout innings with 23 K's.

Carlos Rodon is 1-3 with a 5.48 ERA in four starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 23 innings.  Rodon is 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in eight career starts against the Rays, allowing 20 earned runs, 6 homers and 25 walks in 39 innings.  Bet the Rays Friday.

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15* Yankees/Rays AL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The Rays are playing their home games this season at George M. Steinbrenner Field which is a Triple-A park.  It's one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, and runs should be plentiful in Tampa Bay home games all season.  The forecast looks great for a slug fest with temps in the 80's and light winds today.  The ball will be flying out, and this total of 8 is too low.  

The Rays are heating up at the plate scoring 6.7 runs per game in their last seven games.  The OVER is 6-1-2 in Rays last nine home games with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games, making for a 8-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 8-run total.

The New York Yankees are scoring 6.0 runs per game this season with one of the best offenses in baseball.  Not cashing the OVER 9 yesterday was one of the worst beats of the season.  I settled for a push as these teams combined for 30 base runners with 23 hits and 7 walks.  Both stranded a ton of runners especially the Rays.

Carlos Rodon is 1-3 with a 5.48 ERA in four starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 23 innings.  Rodon is 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in eight career starts against the Rays, allowing 20 earned runs, 6 homers and 25 walks in 39 innings.

Drew Rasmussen has solid numbers thus far but the Yankees should get to him.  Rasmussen has benefited from a soft schedule of the Pirates, Braves and Rangers, three of the worst offenses in baseball.  Those three rank in the bottom six in all of baseball in runs per game, and now Rasmussen must face the No. 1 offense in baseball.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Orioles OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket between the Reds and Orioles tonight.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center with temps in the 70's at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

The Reds are heating up at the plate scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game in their last seven games.  The Orioles are scoring 4.7 runs per game on the season, and they have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last five games coming in.

Andrew Abbott will be making just his second start of the season for the Reds today and will be on a pitch count again after throwing 81 pitchers in his first start.  Cade Povich is a gas can.  He is 3-10 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 19 career starts, allowing 54 earned runs and 13 homers in 94 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Mets OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Cardinals and Mets tonight.  Temps will be in the 50's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center with gusts of over 30 MPH.  The ball should be flying out tonight.

The Cardinals have an underrated lineup scoring 5.0 runs per game this season.  The Mets have one fo the best lineups in baseball and it's only a matter of time before they bust out.  I think that time is today as they are capable of covering this 8-run total on their own.

Miles Mikolas is a gas can.  He went 10-11 with a 5.35 ERA in 32 starts for the Cardinals last season.  Mikolas is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in three starts in 2025, allowing 13 earned runs and 21 base runners in 13 innings.  Mikolas has allowed 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Mets.

David Peterson has allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 23 base runners in 16 2/3 innings thus far in 2025.  He is due some regression after facing a pretty soft schedule of the A's, Marlins and Blue Jays thus far.  He is 29-25 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 470 2/3 innings in the big leagues.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Tigers UNDER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 7.5 ticket between the Royals and Tigers today.  There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds blowing in from right-center at spacious Comerica Park in Detroit tonight with gusts of over 30 MPH.

Cole Ragans has allowed just 3 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings with 31 K's in his last three starts for the Royals and is the clear ace of this staff.  Ragans has allowed 3 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings with 24 K's in his last three starts against the Tigers as well.

Jackson Jobe has been solid this season going 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in three starts while allowing just 5 earned runs and 17 base runners in 15 innings.  He should shut down a struggling Kansas City lineup that has scored 3 runs or fewer in nine of their last 10 games overall, and 4 runs or fewer in 13 consecutive contests.  

The Tigers have been held to one run or fewer in three of their last five games coming in.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Royals last 12 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Tigers last 11 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Phillies OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Marlins and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center inside hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park tonight.  

The Phillies have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are heating up at the plate scoring at least 4 runs in each of their last four games coming in, going 4-0 OVER in those four games which were all at home.  The Marlins are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all six games, and 10 runs or more in five of them.

Sandy Alcantara is working his way back from injury after missing all of last season.  Alcantara has allowed 6 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings this season while being on a pitch count in both of his starts.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Philadelphia.

Zack Wheeler clearly isn't in midseason form yet.  Wheeler has allowed 9 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts and 4 homers in his four starts.  Wheeler has allowed 9 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Miami.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* DBacks/Cubs NL No-Brainer on OVER 10.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10.5 ticket between the Cubs and Diamondbacks at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15 MPH sustained winds blowing out to center and gusts of over 25 MPH.

These are two of the most potent lineups in baseball.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 5.5 runs per game while the Cubs are scoring 5.9 runs per game this season.  Arizona has scored at least 5 runs in five consecutive games coming in.  Chicago has scored at least 7 runs in four of its last five home games.

Corbin Burnes has been disappointing for the Diamondbacks, going 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in three starts this season whie allowing 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 15 1/3 innings.

Colin Rea is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 26-20 with a 4.50 ERA in his career in the big leagues spanning 455 2/3 innings.  Rea has allowed 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 23 base runners in 14 innings in his last three starts against the Diamondbacks.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Heat/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Miami PK

The Miami Heat made easy work of the Chicago Bulls in a 109-90 road victory to put themselves in this position to make the playoffs.  That game at Chicago was tougher than this game at Atlanta will be as the Bulls are better than the Hawks with a better home-court advantage.

The Hawks faltered in a 120-95 road loss to the Orlando Magic to put themselves in this position of must-win.  That was a game the Hawks could afford to lose, while the Heat were in a must-win already as they were completely eliminated with a loss.  I like the mentality of this Heat team coming in.

I also like the experience and the talent on this Miami team much better than that of the Hawks.  Tyler Herro had 38 points, Andrew Wiggins had 20 points and Bam Adebayo had 15 points and 12 rebounds in that win over the Bulls.  This core 3 has a ton of playoff experience and will be up to the challenge.

The Hawks really only have Trae Young with plenty of playoff experience.  Young had 28 points and nobody else had more than 15 for the Hawks against the Magic.  He was ejected late in the game with two technical fouls as he showed his frustration, largely due to not getting much help.

The Heat are the much better defensive team ranking 9th in defensive efficiency while the Hawks rank 18th.  Holding the Bulls to 90 points was no small feat.  The Heat have owned the Hawks in their final two regular season meetings, winning 131-109 and 122-112.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Red Sox OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the White Sox and Red Sox today.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

The wind aided runs yesterday in a 10-3 win in Game 1 for the Red Sox that saw 13 combined runs.  The only reason this total is so low tonight is because Garret Crochet is pitching for Boston.

But this is going to benefit hitters considering this is a rematch from April 13th when Crochet faced Sean Smith in Chicago where the wind was blowing in.  Getting to see these starters for a second time in a week will benefit hitters, and runs should be much more plentiful in the rematch with hot temps and winds blowing out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE DAY on Reds/Orioles OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Reds and Orioles this afternoon.  There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center with temps in the 80's at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

The Reds are heating up at the plate scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game in their last eight games.  The Orioles are scoring 4.6 runs per game on the season with one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

Hunter Greene has been dominant, but he has also benefited from facing a very soft schedule getting to face the Giants (twice), Pirates and Rangers.  The Orioles will get to him enough today.  Brandon Young will be making his MLB debut for the Orioles, and the Reds are capable of covering this total on their own after scoring 8 runs yesterday in Game 1.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Royals/Tigers OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Royals and Tigers this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 60's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Detroit this afternoon.

The Tigers have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.  They should get to Seth Lugo, who allowed 4 earned runs and 4 homers in 6 2/3 innings in his last start.  Lugo allowed 4 earned runs, one homer and 10 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against Detroit.

The Royals should get their bats going against Casey Mize, who 11-20 with a 4.26 ERA in his career with only 241 K's in 308 1/3 innings.  Mize has allowed 7 earned runs and 19 base runners in 6 innings in his last two starts against the Royals.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Pirates OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Guardians and Pirates today.  Temps will be approaching 80 with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in Pittsburgh this afternoon.

It was the same forecast yesterday when the Guardians beat the Pirates 10-7 for 17 combined runs in Game 1.  This total is only this low because Paul Skenes is pitching, but the wind was blowing out in his last home start and it saw 13 combined runs against the Nationals.

Skenes hasn't been perfect, allowing 6 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts coming in.  The Pirates should crush Ben Lively, who has allowed 11 earend runs and 3 homers in 20 1/3 innings in four starts this season.  Lively allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-8 victory over the Pirates in his last start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Cardinals/Mets OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Mets tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center with gusts of over 30 MPH.  The ball should be flying out today.

The Cardinals have an underrated lineup scoring 5.0 runs per game this season.  The Mets have one of the best lineups in baseball and it's only a matter of time before they bust out.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game in their last six games.

Matthew Liberatore has allowed 13 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  Liberatore allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of an 8-7 win over the Mets in his last start against them.

Kodai Senga takes a big step up in class here after getting to face the Marlins (twice) and A's in his first two starts this season, which is a big reason he has been so successful.  Senga is also on a pitch count coming back from injury not throwing more than 79 pitches in any of his three starts thus far.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* DBacks/Cubs NL No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

These are two of the most potent lineups in baseball.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 5.8 runs per game while the Cubs are scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.  Arizona has scored at least 5 runs in six consecutive games coming in.  Chicago has scored at least 7 runs in five of its last six home games.

These teams combined for 24 runs in Game 1.  While the starting pitching matchup and forecast aren't as conducive for runs in the rematch, this total of 7.5 is too low.  Zac Gallen has not been sharp, allowing 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 21 1/3 innings.

Gallen allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings of a 10-6 loss to the Cubs in his first start this season.  Ben Brown has allowed 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 24 innings in his last five starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Marlins/Phillies OVER 10

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket between the Marlins and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center inside hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park today.

The Phillies have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are heating up at the plate scoring at least 4 runs in each of their last five games coming in, going 5-0 OVER in those five games which were all at home.  The Marlins are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all seven games, and 10 runs or more in five of them.

Cal Quantrill is a gas can.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 25 base runners in 14 innings in three starts this season.  Taijuan Walker is an equal gas can.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 10-4 home loss to the Giants in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.