San Diego vs Los Angeles

7:15 EDT, July 2, 2022

4% best bet on the OVER

Padres are 16-7 Over when facing an elite fielding team averaging 0.5 or fewer errors on the season. Dodgers are 38-21 when facing a NL starter that has a WHIP of 1.15 or better over the last two seasons. San Diego is 29-14 in road games after a five-game span where their bullpen has struggled to a 6.50 or worse ERA. San Diego is 28-12 Over in road games following a five-game span with an OBP of .285 or worse over the last two seasons. 

LA Angels vs Houston Astros

4:10 EDT, July 2, 2022

4% best bet on the LA Angels using the money line

Here is another big money maker that applied to this matchup and supports the bet on the Angels, who lost 8-1 to the Astros Friday. Bet on teams when the total is between 8 and 9 runs in a divisional matchup, coming off a game with no multiple run innings, is on a 1 to 3-game losing streak, playing a foe that has won 60% or more of their games, and our team’s bullpen is allowing 2 or fewer runs per game has earned a 67-50 record averaging a +115 dog wager and a very good 21% ROI over the last five seasons. 

Angels are 23-13 in road games and having batted .225 or worse over their last five games in games played over the last two seasons. 

Texas Rangers vs New York Mets

4:10 PM EST, July 2, 2022

4% best bet on the Rangers using the money line and boxed with Perez and Williams starting for the Rangers and Mets respectively. 

Here is a strong situational betting angle that I really like and has been a largely consistent money maker over many seasons. Bet on road teams when the total is 8.5 or 9 runs, have lost between 1 and 3 of their previous games, had no multiple run innings in their previous loss, and facing a foe that has a win percentage of 60% or higher on the season, and our road team is allowing an average of 1.75 or fewer runs per game by the bullpen (earned and unearned) This set of game parameters has earned a 38-34 record, averaging a +130 underdog bet and producing a 26% ROI.

LA Angels vs Houston Astros 

2:10 EDT, July 3, 2022 

4% best bet on the Angels using the +1.5-run line 

Angels lost the first two games of this three-game series badly by a combined scored of 17-2. The predictive models have targeted the Angels to play significantly better and have a much better day at the plate and on the scoreboard. Betting on road teams using the +1.5-run line that are facing a host that defeated them by eight or more runs in the previous game and starting a pitcher in strong form with an ERA of 3.00 over his last 10 starts has produced a 30-10 record good for 75% winning bets since 2004.  

Angels are 38-234 on the +1.5 run ine after losing three of their last four games.  

Angels wake up and realize they need to win, but I will still take the +1.5 run line. 

San Diego vs Los Angeles Dodgers 

4:10 EDT, July 3, 2022 

4% best bet on the Dodgers on the money line 

Kershaw has the ball for the Dodgers, and he was roughed up in his last start allowing six earned runs on nine hits including two home runs. The last time he yielded 6+ earned runs in a start was on June 19 of the 2017 season when he allowed six earned runs to the New York Mets. In his next start against the Rockies, the Dodgers won, with Kershaw completing six innings, allowing zero earned runs, 1 walk, and 8 strikeouts. I expect a similar bounce back from him today. In home games at Dodgers Stadium, Kershaw is 100-40 in 197 starts with an incredible 2.22 ERA and 1,472 strikeouts.  

Betting on favorites that are a strong offensive team scoring an average of 5.0 or more RPG on the season, has allowed two or fewer runs in back-to-back games, and facing a NL starting pitcher with a 3.70 ERA or better has produced an exceptional 56-26 record for 68% winning bets since 2004. If our favorite is playing at home, the record gets even better with a 38-11 record for 78% winning bets and a highly profitable 25% ROI. 

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians 

1:40 PM EDT, July 3, 2022 

4% best bet on the New York Yankees on the money line 

The Yankees scored four runs in each of two innings and had a total of four multiple run innings in yesterday’s 13-4 win over the Guardians. Road teams that have outscored their opponents by at least 100 or more runs, had four or more multiple run innings in their previous game and the host is priced as a 100 to 170 underdog has earned a 33-17 record for 66% winners since 2004 and if the game was played in July, the record is a perfect 11-0!  

The Guardians McKenzie is on the hill, and he has been rocked for 6 and 7 earned runs in his last two starts. Since 2004, teams playing in July that are scoring 4.75 or more RPG and facing a starter that allowed 6 or more earned runs in each of his last two starts are 15-4 for 79% winning bets.