|
Stephen Nover |
|
|---|---|---|
|
I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| FREE PICKS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NCAA-B | Nov 28, 2022 Cal Poly vs. Pacific |
Pacific -6½ -110 at MIRAGE |
started |
|
Pacific has lost and failed to cover its last three games. The Tigers were favored in each of those games, too. That's the bad news. The good news is Pacific is the superior team, is home and this is a buy-low opportunity. Going by the KenPom rankings, the Tigers are No. 235. That's 42 spots higher than Cal Poly using the KenPom ratings. The Mustangs rank 316th in offensive efficiency compared to Pacific ranking 155th in offensive efficiency. Cal Poly is 0-2 SU and ATS on the road this season losing to San Francisco by 12 points and to Stanford by 37 points. Pacific also played Stanford this season, losing to the Cardinal by just 10 points. |
||
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NBA | Nov 28, 2022 Hornets vs Celtics |
Hornets +10½ -110 at linepros |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
The Celtics may be in letdown mode after beating the Wizards, 130-121, on Sunday despite not having Jason Tatum, who sat out with an ankle injury. Tatum is day-to-day. Boston might not be as intense playing for the second consecutive day and in action for the fourth time in six days hosting a lowly non-division opponent. The Hornets have been idle since Friday. Charlotte has been playing well, growing as the season progresses. The Hornets are 3-3 in their last six games, 4-1-1 ATS. Two of their losses during this span occurred on the road to the Wizards by four points and at the Cavaliers in overtime. Charlotte has a good long-term road ATS track record. I'll back the Hornets getting double-digits. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NHL | Nov 28, 2022 Stars vs Blues |
UNDER 6½ -120 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
These two teams have gone Under during their last five meetings. I could see that happening again especially given the scheduling dynamics. The Stars are playing for the fourth time in six days and third time in four days. The Blues also are in action for the fourth time in six days - all at a different venue. This also is the Blues' third game in four days. So I'm not expecting a fast-skating up-tempo game. The Stars could manage only one goal against the Avalanche this past Saturday. The Blues had scored just once with less than 12 minutes left against the Panthers this past Saturday before exploding to pull out a 5-4 overtime victory. I don't see the cautious Stars, who have a top 12 defense, letting the Blues go off like that. St. Louis has given up just three goals in its last two home games. The Under has cashed seven of the past eight times the Blues have hosted the Stars. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NFL | Nov 28, 2022 Steelers vs Colts |
Colts -2½ -110 at circa |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
Since firing Frank Reich, the Colts are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS upsetting the Raiders on the road and losing to the Eagles by one point at home. The controversial hiring of Jeff Saturday has looked good so far. The players have responded to him. The most disappointing part of the Colts' season has been their offensive line. If there' one thing Saturday, the long-time former Pro Bowl center for the Colts, knows something about it's an offensive line. He can get it fixed because there is talent there. There is also skill position talent. Jonathan Taylor is back healthy. He's rushed for 231 yards in his last two games. Matt Ryan is a level higher than rookie Kenny Pickett right now. Pickett has thrown three TD passes and been picked off eight times. He's been sacked 14 times in his last three games. The Steelers are 3-7 and have lost four straight road games. They entered this week ranked 26th in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points a game. The Colts have the better record and their defense entered the week giving up the 11th fewest points per game at 20. Indianapolis ranked fifth in pass defense. The Colts give up 5.0 yards per play and 307.6 yards per game compared to the Steelers allowing 5.8 yards per play and 375.5 yards a game. Pittsburgh went into this week ranked 29th in scoring offense, averaging just 16.3 points a game. The Steelers won't have their second-best running back, Jaylen Warren. He's out with a hamstring injury. Both teams should be highly motivated playing on national TV. But the Steelers' 37-30 home loss to the Bengals last week realistically ended any playoff hope. They are looking at their first losing season under Mike Tomlin. They should be in rebuild mode now. The Colts have some momentum with the coaching switch to Saturday. They are just two games back in the loss column in the AFC South Division. The bar is not set high here asking the Colts to win by a field goal. |
||
|
SERVICE BIO |
|---|
|
Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
