The Braves rank fourth in runs and third in homers. They should tee off a historically-bad A's pitching staff. The Braves are 24-9-1 to the Over in their last 34 interleague games.

The A's have the worst bullpen by far with a 6.50 ERA. Not good news for Paul Blackburn, who will be making his first start since last August.

The A's, though, should be able to contribute to this Over going against Mike Soroka, who hasn't pitched in three years after tearing his Achilles tendon.

The Astros averaged seven runs a game in sweeping three games from the A's. Now, though, they go from facing the worst pitching staff to dealing with Sonny Gray. 

Gray is 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA. He leads the majors in ERA and fielding independent pitching. No player has been able to homer off Gray this season in 54 1/3 innings. The Astros saw Gray back on April 7. It didn't go well for them. Gray struck out 13 in seven innings, while giving up just one run on four hits and one walk. 

Before destroying the historically-bad A's, the Astros had been shut out in consecutive games by the Brewers. 

Minnesota has scored three or fewer runs in five of its last seven games. 

The Astros are going with good-looking rookie J.P. France. The Twins have never faced France, who has held opponents to one earned run or none in three of his four starts. Behind France is a Houston bullpen that has the third-lowest ERA in the league at 3.10. 

There's a lot of randomness here in a pitching matchup of Karl Kauffman against Arizona's Ryne Nelson. Neither of these starters is very good. Yet the Diamondbacks are nearly a 2-to-1 favorite. So I'll take a shot on the Rockies, who are 5-2 in their last seven games, and cushion it by taking 1 1/2 runs on the run line.

Kauffman is 0-2 with a 9.35 ERA. He does have the element of surprise as the Diamondbacks have never faced him. The righthanded Nelson is 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA. The Rockies faced him on April 30 and got to him for six runs on nine hits in four innings. Colorado won that contest, 12-4.

The Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus a righty starter. They are averaging six runs during their past seven games.

The Heat and Celtics meet in Game 7 for the Eastern Conference championship. The talk is all about how the Celtics have a great chance to be the first team in NBA history to come back from a 3-0 playoff deficit.

That's fine and dandy. But when it comes to betting, I find a different angle - the total. It is the lowest of the series by far. The totals have ranged from 209-to-216 in the first six games.

This one is much lower because of the perception there will be tremendous defensive intensity.

Sure neither team will be holding back. But there is way too much good 3-point shooting in today's NBA. That offsets any extra defensive effort.

The Celtics are averaging 108.8 points in the series. Miami is averaging 110.1 points. The Celtics were the fourth-highest scoring team during the regular season at 118 points per game.

There have been at least 207 combined points scored in each of the six games.

Even if the referees let the teams play super physical, there still are going to be fouls called. If the game is called tight, there will be lots of fouls called. The Heat were the second-best foul shooting team in the league. Boston ranked sixth in free throw percentage.

Jimmy Butler shot 5-for-21 from the field in Game 6. Miami still scored 104 points. It's worth noting that Gabe Vincent, who is averaging 20.3 points during his last three games, played 41 minutes this past Saturday in Game 6. So it appears he's past his ankle injury.

The Heat are a strong defensive team. But they are dealing with a stacked deck on the road going against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who is shooting much better going 18-for-34 from the floor the past two games. It's an added bonus if Malcolm Brogdon can play for Boston after missing Game 6 with an arm injury.

Bottom line is the oddsmaker has overcompensated on the total because it's Game 7 giving value to the Over.