Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports- Currently Testing 165-113 59% a all sports run that has made my dime players more than $41000.00 in bankroll expanding profits. Includes 37-11 77% CBB run !
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NCAA-F SUBSCRIPTIONS
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NBA SUBSCRIPTIONS
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 27, 2022
Pacers vs Clippers
Clippers
+1½ -110 at BetVegas
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Indiana has been playing some viable basketball this season, while the Clippers have been inconsistent and on a 2 game losing run. However, its been a long standing mistake many pundits make under estimating the Clippers abilities even when Leonard and George are sidelined.Im betting on the Clippers undervalued depth and grit to triump here and get is the cover.

Lue is 32-17 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 as the coach of LA CLIPPERS.

NBA Road favorites (INDIANA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Sunday games are 9-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Pacers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 27, 2022
Warriors vs Wolves
Wolves
+2 -110 at circa
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The Warriors  against the Timberwolves in last seasons meetings , won by an average of 11 points in two home games, but lost by an average of 17.5 in two visits to Minnesota.Karl-Anthony Towns was key on the home wins for the Wolves garnering  26 points and 11 rebounds to a 119-99 romp in January, then 39 points and nine rebounds to a 129-114 triumph in March. Rinse and repeat pattern on board here with the line favoring the Wolves. 

GOLDEN STATE is 1-9 ATS  in road games this season. GOLDEN STATE is 11-24 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Sunday games are 9-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 55-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota Wolves to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 27, 2022
Canisius vs Buffalo
Canisius
+6½ -110 at William Hill
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.

Canisius has made 10-or more treys in four of the first five games. Dangerous downtown shooting side that deserves respect as underdogs. 

CBB Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BUFFALO) - poor defensive team (45-47.5%) against a horrible defensive team (47.5% or more ), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO's) are 31-9 ATS L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Canisius to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 27, 2022
Xavier vs Gonzaga
UNDER 159½ -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  

Veterans Memorial Coliseum - Portland, OR

My projections estimate a combined score of no more than 155 points which adds significant value to us taking an under stance here. This estimate is above long term trend factors and gives us cushion room, but is viable  with a 2 or more possession edge factor.  

XAVIER is 22-8 UNDER L/30 in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers with a combined average of 139.1 ppg scored.

GONZAGA L/19 games against Big East conference opponents since 1997 have seen a combined average of 146.1 ppg scored.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (Xavier/GONZAGA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) are 34-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 140.2 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 27, 2022
Packers vs Eagles
Packers
+6½ -105 at Ace
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

The Eagles had to get down and dirty in a come from behind  in the 4th quarter last week to garner a  17-16 win vs Indianapolis and will now be in an unfortunate emotional letdown situation vs a very hungry Green Bay side. I know the Packers fell flat on their faces last week losing as favs , but it must be noted that  QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SU/ATS as a pup when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss. Rodgers is a very streaky QB, and dont be surprised if he finishes this season on fire, starting tonight in Philly on national TV. 

It must also be noted that Philly has lost the stats wars in 3 of their L/6 games and are being over rated by the pundits in my humble betting opinion. 

PHILADELPHIA is 14-31 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Green Bay Packers to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 27, 2022
Saints vs 49ers
OVER 42½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The 49ers offense is multi dimensional with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell at running back, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and  tight end George Kittle. Im betting this group. matches up well for the Saints D, and does some damage . On the flispide Andy Dolton and the Saints despite of some inconsistencies put 27 points on the Rams last week in a victory and should not be underestimated in their ability to do have decent output vs. a strong SF D. Note:The Saints stand 8th in the league in passing offense with 237.5 yards per game and Im betting the 49ers will force them to bomb away as SF goes above their expected offensive output average. 

NFC WEST home teams like the 49ers  vs any NFC SOUTH opponent like New Orleans , when the Total offering is  43  or more points are  10-1 OVER L/4 seasons. 

New Orleans and the SF 49ers have gone over  9 straight times here in California  with a combined  average of 52.5 ppg going on the board!

Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.

Play OVER

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 27, 2022
Bears vs Jets
Bears
+6 -107 at linepros
Lost
$107.0
Play Type: Premium

The Jets averaged 2.1 yards per play in last Sundays defeat at the hands of the New England Pats and don't deserve this much respect based on having a overall strong D. QB Wilson will not start this week, but any back up pivot Im betting wont fair much better . Yes, I do know QB Justin Fields is not 100% but his legs are dangerous offensive weapons and if he does not play pounding the ball on the ground is not a foreign concept of moving the ball for the Bears giving them an advantage in this type of matchup. 

NY JETS are 19-34 ATS  off a road loss against a division rival since 1992. NY JETS are 22-38 ATS in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 13-40 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate. 

CHICAGO is 6-1 against the spread versus NY JETS since 1992 and have covered their L/3 visits to NYJ. 

Chicago is 4-0 ATS L/4 vs AFC East opposition.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 28, 2022
Steelers vs Colts
Steelers
+3 -120 at BetVegas
Play Type: Premium

Pittsburgh is being under rated here in this matchup vs the Colts especially with JJ watts in the lineup. His energy permeates through this team and gives them an extra charge.  The Steelers are  8-0-1 ATS in the last nine matchups  versus AFC South opponents, while the Colts  are just 1-6 ATS L/7 vs AFC North opponents.

The  Steelers are 16-2 SU L/18 in this series, including 2-0 SUATS as a pup. I know the Colts have played better of late, but this team is still in disarray and fade material in my humble betting opinion. 

Pittsburgh 8-1 ATS L/ 9 MNF vs division opposition

Play Pittsburgh to cover . 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 28, 2022
Golden Knights vs Blue Jackets
UNDER 6½ +105 Won
$105
Play Type: Premium

The Golden Knights looked lethargic at times in Friday's 4-2 loss to Seattle, then fell behind 5-0 after two periods of an eventual 5-1 loss  and now Im betting they pickup their defensive work here tonight and pay more attention in transition. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets last played this past Friday at home when they were flipped in 3-2 by the New York Islanders. Im betting after an ugly start to their campaign, that a new focus on playing responsible  Defensive hockey will continue. 

VEGAS is 7-1 UNDER after a division game this season with a combined average of 5 gpg scored. 

NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (VEGAS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after a blowout loss by 4 goals or more in their previous game are 31-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 5 gpg scored.

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 28, 2022
Bulls vs Jazz
Jazz
-1½ -110 at linepros
Play Type: Premium

After a fast start to their season Utah has really cooled off but this is a good matchup for them here at home vs a Chicago Bulls side that has been highly inconsistent this season. The Jazz are off a heart breaking loss to the Suns on the road but proved their the really deal and here in the friendly confines of  Vivint Arena where they are 6-2 SU have na edge. Jazz are also  9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

CHICAGO is 20-34 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO is 4-14 ATS  in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - excellent shooting team (47% or more) against an terrible defensive team (47% or more ), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 35-3 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road underdogs (CHICAGO) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 7-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 28, 2022
Pittsburgh vs Northwestern
OVER 127½ -110
Play Type: Premium

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  

Capel III is 24-14 OVER off a home win as the coach of PITTSBURGH with a combined average of 138.6 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (NORTHWESTERN) - after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 22-3 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134.3 ppg scored.

teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games are 38-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 130 points going on the board.

Play OVER

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).