Alex Smart Alex Smart
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 18, 2021
Phillies vs Giants
OVER 8½ -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

The Giants are 10-0-1 OVER L/11  as a favorite after they won by 5+ runs last game. SAN FRANCISCO is 13-1 OVER off a win of 6 runs or more over a division rival over the last 3 seasons

Giants starter  CUETO is 11-1 OVER in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.9 rpg going on the board.   CUETO is 1-6 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 5.07 and a WHIP of 1.284 in 13 games. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 23-5 OVER  vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season like the Phillies starter Velasquez. with a combined average of 10.6 rpg going on the score board. ( Velasquez owns a 8.25 ERA in his L/3 starts) 

MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 10 runs or more are 39-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play on the OVER 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 18, 2021
Twins vs Rangers
Twins
-155 at BetCris
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Twins starter Jose Berrios ( RHP-7-2, 3.49 ERA, 81 SO) In his last outing, José Berríos went seven innings and limited the Astros to two runs on five hits. Berríos was the winning pitcher in five of his last eight outings. He has pitched seven or more innings three times in that span and now still in top form entering this tilt gets my support on a moderate chalk line. 

The Twins are 20-0 L/20 on the ML  as a favorite of at least -140 after a game as a road favorite in which they won by 5+ runs.

TEXAS is 9-28 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.TEXAS is 8-33  against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons

MLB Road teams (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games are 163-110  L/24 seasons for. a60% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 18, 2021
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks
Dodgers
-184 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 Dodgers starter Bauer had a great start to his campaign and is obviously a top tier pitcher, that has looked average of late.  But this is a great opportunity to get back into early season form vs a struggling side in Arizona. 

ARIZONA is 2-25  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season. ARIZONA is 3-22  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. ARIZONA is 1-15 against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 this season.

MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (LA DODGERS) - after a game without an extra base hit are 52-3 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Dodgers to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 18, 2021
Cardinals vs Braves
Cardinals
+135 at Mirage
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

Cards starter Martínez was sharp in his last start (two unearned runs over seven frames) and owns  a 3.90 ERA in 11 games (four starts) against Atlanta. MARTINEZ is 3-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.240.

ATLANTA is 7-12  against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

ST LOUIS is 18-2 against the money line after a game where they had 4 or less hits over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Cards to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jun 18, 2021
76ers vs Hawks
Hawks
+3 -104 at pinnacle
Lost
$104.0
Play Type: Premium

The 76ers held a  26-point lead at home against the Atlanta Hawks in game 5 and took a  18 point lead into the fourth quarter. But however, in miraculous fashion the Hawks scored 40 points in the final quarter   to complete one  of the biggest playoff comebacks in league history.In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games beginning in 1947, road teams down 22 points as late as after two quarters had a game record of only 0-19 (.000). Now with huge momentum on their sides Im betting Atlanta has the edge vs a deflated 76ers group that have shown themselves to be less than brilliant on the road this season as is evident by their 19-19 ATS record. 

ATLANTA is 12-3 ATS in home games after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons. 

PHILADELPHIA is 9-21 ATS  in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or better ) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), in a game involving two good ball handling team ( 14.5 or less TO's) after 42+ games are 102-30 L/5 seasons for a 77% SU conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 14-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

ATLANTA is 6-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons here at home in Georgia. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jun 18, 2021
76ers vs Hawks
UNDER 221½ -102 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 6

Atlanta took game 5 by a  109-106 score in Philadelphia  thanks to being able to slow the Sixers down defensively after going down early. Playing some physical hardcore D will continue to be the Hawks recipe for success vs a Sixers side that is streaky offensively. With that said, D, will also be the focus of the visitors in this big game, and Im betting will result in a tight lower scoring affair. 

Rivers is 38-21 UNDER  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more in all games he has coached with a combined average of 197.8 ppg scored.

PHILADELPHIA is 13-5 UNDER  as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored. Under is 11-5 in 76ers last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

ATLANTA is 15-1 UNDER L/16  when attempting to close out a playoff series with a combined average of 174.5 ppg scored.  ATLANTA is 24-7 UNDER   when leading in a playoff series with a combined average of 185.6 ppg scored. Under is 10-3 in Hawks last 13 overall.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 42-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jun 18, 2021
Jazz vs Clippers
Jazz
-1½ -110 at linepros
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

With Kawhi Leonard on the sidelines again tonight Im betting on the Jazz finding a way to extend this series with a take no prisoners effort here and take this to a game 7. Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 14-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% for bettors. 

Play on Utah to cover 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.