Right-hander Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.82 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Twins and gives the Twins a strong opportunity to notch another top notch effort. He leads the majors in ERA, adjusted ERA-plus (236) and fielding independent pitching (2.02), and has yet to give up a home run in  54 1/3 innings  of quality work this season. His opponent, Rookie right-hander J.P. France (1-1, 3.43 ERA) has looked  very viable at times and will also help keep this score to the low side of the offered total. Both these bullpens have also been in good form this season and deserve respect to pick up where the starters left off.

Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 vs. American League Central.Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning recordUnder is 16-5 in Astros last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter like Gray. 

Under is 20-8 in Astros last 28 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 9-4-1 in Astros last 14 home games.

 MINNESOTA is 18-6 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored.Under is 32-15-5 in Twins last 52 vs. American League West.Under is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 during game 1 of a series.

Under is 11-5-2 in the last 18 meetings.

Play on the under

Right-hander Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.82 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Twins and gives the Twins a strong opportunity to notch a victory at a value price. He leads the majors in ERA, adjusted ERA-plus (236) and fielding independent pitching (2.02), and has yet to give up a home run in  54 1/3 innings  of quality work this season. His opponent, Rookie right-hander J.P. France (1-1, 3.43 ERA) has looked  very viable at times but according to my power rankings this is a bad matchup for him. 

Houston is also set for major regression today after a season-high seven home runs the   in their 10-1 road win over the Oakland Athletics on Sunday. Note: HOUSTON is 3-10 (-13.7 Units) against the money line after a game they hit 4 or more home runs over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 1-7  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

Play on Minnesota to win

 The Rays have lost six of their last nine on the road, and are looking a little mortal away from home. With that said, Im betting on Marcus Stroman (4-4, 2.95 ERA),  who has allowed three runs and seven hits with four walks over 14 innings to win his last two starts. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay returns fire with starter Taj Bradley (3-1, 4.44) . The right-hander was handed a ego crusher last time out, when he gave up four runs and nine hits in an ugly four innings of sub par work in a lopsided 20-1 loss to Toronto last Tuesday. He is in a  fragile state right now and could easily feel the pressure at some point today vs a desperate Cubs side playing at home. 

TAMPA BAY is 16-24  against the money line in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

MLB Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - very good AL offensive team (5.4 or more  runs/game) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better), after a win by 2 runs or less are 8-29 L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to win

Detroit will send left-hander Matthew Boyd to  the hill vs the Rangers. Boyd (3-3, 5.74) has a win and a no-decision in his last two starts but hasn't gone deep in those games and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well here vs a Rangers side that has hit lefties hard this season as is evident by averaging 7.7 rpg via a 290 BA. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi has overpowered opposing offenses in his last five starts. Eovaldi is coming off a complete-game victory at Pittsburgh 6 days ago. He held the Pirates to one run on six hits and one walk while striking out five and throwing 104 pitches. In three of his previous four starts before the above mentioned top tier effort vs the  Pirates, Eovaldi (6-2, 2.60 ERA) held his opposition scoreless and lasted at least eight innings. Overall during the five-game span , the veteran righty has allowed four runs and 22 hits while garnering  35 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings of lightning work. Advantage on the hill goes to Texas. 

Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

TEXAS is 21-8 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season.

Tigers are 20-41 in their last 61 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Tigers are 51-111 in their last 162 vs. American League West.

MLB team (TEXAS) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA 5.70 to 6.20)-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 29-3 L/26 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas to win 

Im betting game 7 of this series will be a grueling take no prisoners physical type of event that will have both sides focused on precise mistake free hoops out of transition. That Im betting will make for a lower scoring event that does not eclipse this total.BOSTON is 10-0 UNDER  when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA ( BOSTON/ MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 7th game of a playoff series is 60-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under 

The Heat took the first 3 games of this series while the Celtics have won the last 3.  But the Heat finally came to life in the last 5 min of the last game, and narrowly lost 104-103. Im betting the Heats regression is now over and  will give what must be an exhausted Boston side all they can handle here in game 7. Teams like Boston that were down 0-3 in a NBA play off series are 0-149 lifetime . 

NBA team (MIAMI) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion. 

.Play on Miami to cover