Sean Murphy Sean Murphy
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 18, 2021
A's vs Yankees
A's
+1½ -155 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

The case could certainly be made for the A's to be favored in this matchup as they take their six-game winning streak into the Bronx for a date with the Yankees. I'll grab the extra run as insurance in a game Oakland is certainly capable of winning.

Rookie James Kaprielian has been terrific for the A's this season. He's had just one bad start in six turns in the rotation, that coming in a situation where he was starting on four days' rest in consecutive outings. He's bounced back nicely since, allowing just two earned runs in 11 innings over his last two starts. Kaprielian shouldn't be intimidated by starting here at Yankee Stadium after he pitched five quality innings in a 4-1 win at Fenway Park in his first career start earlier this season.

Behind Kaprielian is an A's bullpen that has been at its best on the road this season, posting a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.

Jameson Taillon gets the nod for New York. As well as he has pitched here at home this season, the Yankees have still only managed to win three of his seven outings in the Bronx. While the A's have the advantage of having been idle yesterday, the Yanks were involved in a hard-fought 8-4 win over the division rival Blue Jays in Buffalo. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*).

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Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 18, 2021
A's vs Yankees
UNDER 9½ -105 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

This is being pegged as a potential slugfest between two hot-hitting teams in the Bronx on Friday night. I expect a different story to unfold, however.

Rookie James Kaprielian will get the start for Oakland. Making your first career start at Yankee Stadium is always a big deal and I think Kaprielian will be up to the challenge. Keep in mind, his first big league start came at Fenway Park back in May and he gave up just one earned run over five innings in a 4-1 A's victory. Kaprielian has really had just one bad start in six turns in the rotation this season, that coming in Seattle back on May 31st. Consider he was making his second straight start on four days' rest in that situation. Here, he pitches on five days' rest for the third consecutive time.

While Kaprielian averages just 5.4 innings per start this season that's not a major concern as the A's bullpen comes off an off day yesterday and has been terrific on the road this season, recording a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.

Jameson Taillon looks to bounce back from one of the worst (and shortest) outings of his career. He's actually well-positioned to do so here at home, where he has been at his best this season recording a 3.22 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts. He averages just over five innings per start at home but again, that's not a big concern as the Yankees bullpen has been effective here at home, posting a collective 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Take the under (10*).

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 18, 2021
Mets vs Nationals
Nationals
-113 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

The Mets had their three-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Cubs last night while the Nationals enter this series off of four straight victories. I look for Washington to keep its winning streak intact for at least one more night.

Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for New York. He's been awful in five road starts this season, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Worse still, he has recorded an 8.77 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four nighttime starts. Averaging just 3 2/3 innings per start we're likely to see plenty of the Mets bullpen in this one. While New York's relief corps has posted fine overall numbers this season, it has struggled on the road having recorded a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with eight blown saves to go along with nine converted.

Speaking of bullpens, it's certainly worth noting that the Mets haven't had an off day in over a week while the Nats' were idle yesterday.

Erick Fedde gets the start for the Nationals. His numbers aren't great by any means, far from it in fact. However, he has pitched well over his last few starts, recording a 1.59 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while working at least five innings in all three of those outings. Behind him is a terrific Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home this season, converting eight save opportunities while blowing only three. Take Washington (10*).

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jun 18, 2021
Mercury vs Sparks
UNDER 157½ -107 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

WNBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup two nights ago but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. We're being given a more favorable number to work with and I look for both teams to make the necessary defensive adjustments to help keep this one 'under' the total.

The Sparks had no answers for Mercury star Brittney Griner on Wednesday as she shot 10-of-16 from the field and got to the free throw line 12 times on her way to a 30-point explosion. I fully expect to see the Sparks make some adjustments and do a better job of keeping her contained here. I also think we'll see things balance out a bit after the Mercury held a 28-6 free throw edge two nights ago.

Credit Los Angeles for prevailing in that contest thanks to shooting 45% from the field. Keep in mind, this is a team that had shot 36.8% or worse from the field in their previous three games. Phoenix will undoubtedly respond with a better defensive effort, noting that it had previously held six straight opponents to 42.7% or worse shooting.

The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Mercury's last two games. Note that they've yet to post three straight 'over' results this season. The last time they were in position to do so they totaled just 151 points in their next game. The Sparks on the other hand have yet to post consecutive 'over' results this season. Their two previous contests following an 'over' result totaled just 131 and 144 points. Take the under (10*).

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Jun 18, 2021
Golden Knights vs Canadiens
OVER 5 -133 Tie
Play Type: Premium

My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday.

We won with the 'under' in Game 3 between the Lightning and Islanders last night. In fact, in going 4-0 this round we've yet to step in with a play on the 'over'. We'll switch gears and do so here, however, as the Knights and Canadiens head north for Game 3 in Montreal.

Vegas got off to a quick offensive start in this series but looked like a different team in Game 2, perhaps missing first-line center Chandler Stephenson, or perhaps taking the Habs a little too lightly after cruising to a 4-1 win in the series-opener. Whatever the case, I expect to see the Knights bounce back offensively in this one. The Canadiens haven't been a better defensive team at home this season, allowing an identical 2.9 goals per game to what they give up on the road. The Knights, meanwhile, haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production away from home, averaging 3.2 goals per contest, just 0.1 goals per game lower than their season average.

Keep in mind, Knights road games this season have averaged 5.5 goals per game while their playoff games have averaged just shy of that at 5.4 goals per game. The Canadiens have admittedly been involved in lower-scoring playoff affairs, with their games averaging just 4.8 total goals, however, it's worth noting that each of their last four games have totaled at least five goals.

I simply feel that we're going to see totals back at 5.5 in this series, just as we saw back in Game 1. Look for the Knights to come out with an attacking mindset after a poor performance in Game 2 while the Habs aren't likely to lay down here at home, helping contribute to this one going 'over' the relatively low total. Take the over (10*).

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Jun 18, 2021
Golden Knights vs Canadiens
Golden Knights
-158 at pinnacle
Lost
$158.0
Play Type: Premium

My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday.

We won a big ticket play on the Canadiens +1.5 goals two nights ago as they stunned the Knights in a 3-2 outright victory in Las Vegas. Here, I look for the Knights to answer back as the scene shifts to Montreal for Game 3 on Friday night.

I believe this situation sets up similarly to Game 3 in the Knights opening round series against Minnesota. The Wild managed to steal one of the first two games in Las Vegas but the Knights responded favorably to the pressure in Game 3 in Minnesota, rallying from an early deficit to deliver a 5-2 victory.

Vegas has been one of the best road teams in the NHL this season, posting a 22-12 record while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals. The Habs on the other hand haven't been anything special here at the Bell Centre, posting a 16-17 record. They're currently riding a three-game winning streak here at home, which matches their longest such streak of the season. The last time they tried to make it four wins in a row on home ice they fell by a 4-3 score against the Oilers back on May 10th.

Note that the Canadiens check in a miserable 10-20 after winning four of their last five games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They've been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. Take Vegas (10*).

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jun 18, 2021
76ers vs Hawks
76ers
-150 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

NBA Second Round Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia moneyline over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Friday.

We'll back the 76ers on the moneyline in this matchup as while I do expect them to prevail, their poor free throw shooting could leave the backdoor ever so slightly open in the late stages of this contest.

Credit Atlanta for rallying to steal Game 5 in Philadelphia two nights ago. The 76ers were guilty of taking their foot off the gas and perhaps looking ahead to a potential series clincher here in Atlanta in Game 6. Instead, now it's the 76ers who will be facing elimination on Friday night. I look for them to avoid that fate, however.

Philadelphia is a quality road team by NBA standards, having posted a 22-18 SU record away from home this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.9 points per game on average. Note that the Sixers check in a solid 35-18 SU having outscored opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a long-term loser at 18-39 SU the last 57 times it has played after recording consecutive outright underdog wins.

There's really no intimidation factor at play here. The 76ers know they can beat the Hawks, regardless of the setting, having already posted a 16-point victory here on this floor back in Game 3. Philadelphia hasn't lost three games in a row since a four-game skid from April 19th-24th and it's worth noting that it was the underdog in three of those four contests, unlike this situation where it has been favored in every game in this series. Take Philadelphia moneyline (10*).

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 18, 2021
White Sox vs Astros
Astros
+103 at pinnacle
Won
$103
Play Type: Top Premium

MLB American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Astros cruised to a 10-2 win in the opener of this four-game series last night and have now won four games in a row and 12 of their last 16 overall. I look for them to keep rolling on Friday.

Carlos Rodon will take the ball for the White Sox. He's been terrific this season, there's no denying that. However, here he'll be pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start after going seven innings in his last outing against the Tigers. He'll also be facing an Astros lineup that has feasted on left-handed pitching this season, hitting .270 as a team and averaging 5.6 runs per game against southpaw starters. Behind Rodon is a somewhat overworked White Sox bullpen given the team hasn't had a day off since back on June 7th.

Luis Garcia will counter for Houston. He has quietly been one of the Astros most effective starters this season and has been outstanding here at home where he owns a 1.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in five starts, with the Astros winning three of those games. Houston's bullpen has been solid here at home this season, recording a collective 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with just three blown saves compared to seven converted. Unlike the White Sox, who have been playing every day for nearly two weeks straight, the Astros were just off on Monday. Take Houston (10*).

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  Jun 18, 2021
Czech Republic vs Croatia
Czech Republic
0½ -145 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Friday Euro Free play. My selection is on Czech Republic +0.5 goals over Croatia at 12 noon et on Friday.

We won with the Czechs against Scotland earlier this week and while this is a trickier matchup against a Croatia squad that will be desperate for a positive result, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with what I still feel is an undervalued Czech side.

While everyone will talk about how Croatia desperately needs at least a point in this match, the Czechs, despite winning their opener, could also use at least a point knowing they'll be in tough against England in their final group stage match. A win would of course assure the Czechs of a spot in the knockout stage.

It seems that most were down on the Czechs after watching them drop a 4-0 decision against Italy in a friendly match leading up to this tournament. Keep in mind, that one was already well in hand for the Italians before the Czechs finally brought arguably their two best players, Tomas Soucek and Patrik Schick into the match for the second half. We saw a much different squad against Scotland and I expect to see a similar attacking style from them here on Friday.

Croatia turned in an uninspiring performance in its opener against England and has now gone winless in its last three matches. The 2016 World Cup runner-ups still have everything in front of them with a winnable match against Scotland still to be played. As I mentioned, gaining at least a point here is paramount though. This match has high-potential for a 'draw'. We'll grab the half-goal of insurance with the Czechs. Take Czech Republic +0.5 goals (8*).

Off a 5-2 card yesterday, Sean is riding an INCREDIBLE 52-23 (+$2,272) run! Now is the PERFECT time to hop on board! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  Jun 18, 2021
Czech Republic vs Croatia
OVER 2¼ +104 Lost
$50.0
Play Type: Premium

My selection is on Croatia vs. Czech Republic 'over' 2 goals at 12 noon et on Friday.

NOTE: I recommend playing this total at a slightly steeper price at 2 rather than the standard 2.25 being offered. Most books will allow you to play the alternate total of 2 priced around -145 at the time of writing.

We saw a very uninspiring performance from Croatia - the 2016 World Cup runner-up - in its tournament-opening 1-0 loss to England (we won with England in that match). Here, I look for it to come out with an attacking mindset as it could certainly use the three points, already sitting three back of both aforementioned England and today's opponent, the Czech Republic following its impressive 2-0 victory over Scotland.

While the Czechs managed to keep a clean sheet against Scotland it wasn't without some difficulty as the Scots generated a number of quality chances, ultimately firing 19 shots with four of them reaching target. I do think that Croatia boasts the finishing ability that Scotland lacks. Leading up to this tournament, Czech Republic had conceded at least a goal in five consecutive matches.

In my analysis of my play in support of the Czechs and the 'over' in their last match I pointed to their dynamic scoring ability led by striker Patrik Schick. Right on cue, he delivered two goals in their opener, including what will likely go down as the goal of the tournament. I would certainly expect him to remain dangerous here as the Czechs should be eager to proceed forward knowing that three points would secure their place in the knockout stage.

It's worth noting that we've seen one side score at least two goals in five of the six 'matchday two' contests at this tournament so far. It's not really until 'matchday three' that we look to take strong 'under' positions. With earning at least a point imperative for both sides, and neither all that likely to deliver a clean sheet, we'll look for some goals on Friday. Take the over (10*).

SERVICE BIO

Sean Murphy made his professional debut as lead handicapper for Pat Miller Sports in 2003, continuing on with The Miller Group from 2006 through 2009.  Sean broke away to found his own sports service in September 2009 and has now delivered 12 of 17 winning NFL seasons.  Sean’s also cashed big in NCAA Football, as he’s won each of the last 3 seasons, recording wins with 57% of his overall bets.  A key factor in Sean’s success is his knack for Over/Unders, which is no surprise given Sean’s reputation as a ‘numbers guru.’  Indeed, Sean’s knack for handling numbers is deep-rooted.  He owns a business degree, with a major in finance, and is a member of the prestigious Beta Gamma Sigma honor society for business students and scholars.     Although Sean took a circuitous route to become a professional handicapper, sports betting has been a part of his life for as long as he can remember.  In fact, he still fondly recalls his first successful venture into sports betting – a winning three-game NFL ‘Pro-Line’ parlay (offered by the Canadian lottery) when he was just 12 years old.  Sean — along with the rest of his 7th grade class — was hooked.  His passion for sports is unmatched.  The phrase “find something you love to do and you’ll never ‘work’ a day in your life” is Murph's mantra.  Sean's love for numbers, combined with his passion for sports, makes a career in sports handicapping the perfect fit.     After building The Miller Group from the ground up, and turning it into one of America’s most respected handicapping services, Sean has continued to prosper as an independent, thanks to an honest approach and strong belief in delivering value to the customer.  Sean’s selections are based on his extensive knowledge of the game, and his approach is both situational and statistical.  He prides himself on going against the majority and thinking outside the box, and his unique analysis keeps his clients coming back.  When you purchase one of Sean’s selections, you can always count on insightful and expert information to back it up.  Sean rates all of his plays from 8* to 10* with free plays qualifying as 8* releases, and the majority of his selections warranting a 10* designation.  As you would expect, the higher the rating, the stronger the play.