#639/640 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 123.5 Points – North Texas vs Boise State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams that play very slow should lead to a low scoring game here. North Texas is notorious for playing as slow as any team in the country and this year is no different as they rank 358th out of 362 teams in average possession per game at 64. Boise State is right near the bottom as well in that statistic ranking 301st at 68 possessions per game. Both teams rank inside the top 65 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing less than 1.0 PPP. Both also rank outside the top 115 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 300 in field goals made per game. Boise has played 6 games vs Division 1 opponents and only 2 of those have topped 126 total points. Those games were vs Va Tech and Clemson who rank inside the top 65 nationally in offensive efficiency. UNT has scored 79 points in each of their last 2 games but one was vs Angelo State and the other vs Mississippi Valley State who ranks 355th in defensive efficiency. Prior to that they played 3 straight neutral site games and averaged just 59 PPG in those games. What impressed us was in their neutral site games they faced 2 efficient offenses who are fast paced and held them to 53 points (St Johns) and 66 points (LSU). Those 2 games vs much faster paced and better offensive teams than Boise ended with total points scored of 105 and 128 respectively. This one should be a grinder and we’ll grab the Under.

ASA Top Play on 10* NY Knicks +5.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks are still going through the growing pains with their new lineup and the addition of Damian Lillard. Milwaukee is still one of the best teams in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.187 points per possession but defensively they rank 20th after finishing 4th a year ago. New York owns the 8th best DEFF rating allowing 1.108PPP while also ranking 11th in OEFF. The Knicks also have the better overall point differential in the league at plus +3.8PPG, the Bucks average +2.9PPG. New York is one of 12 teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.5PPG. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU at home but their average margin of victory is only +2.7PPG. That is a significant drop from last years average of +5.9PPG at home for the Bucks which was the 6th best in the league. These two teams met in early November on this floor with the Bucks winning 110-105. Since that loss the Knicks have won 10 of their last thirteen games. The last three meetings have been decided by 6-points or less. We expect this game to go down to the wire and will grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - We are surprised this Total opened as high as it did and like the value with an Under wager here. These two teams are known for their defenses as the Magic allow just 1.073 points per possession which ranks 3rd in the league, while the Cavs rank 13th allowing 1.136PPP. Cleveland is the 10th slowest paced team in the league at 98.5 possessions per game. Orlando plays slightly faster at 100.1 possessions p/game. In their last ten games the Magic have recently faced Brooklyn, Washington (2x’s), Charlotte, Indiana and Chicago who all rank 21st or worse in DEFF. Tonight, they face a Cavs team that allows opponents to shoot just 45.3% (7th) and give up the 8th fewest points in the league at 111.2PPG. Orlando isn’t a great offensive team either, ranking 19th in offensive efficiency and they don’t shoot it particularly well from deep at 35.4% which is 21st in the NBA. Cleveland is worse in OEFF ranking 22nd overall and they hit just 34.3% from beyond the Arc which ranks 26th. In four meetings last season these two teams had totals set of 213.5, 223, 217.5 and 215.5, which are all significantly lower than tonight’s O/U. Three of those four games all finished with 212 or less total points. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Raptors here and predict a double-digit win by the home team. Miami is dealing with two key injuries to Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo which has made them an ‘average’ team at best. The Heat have a positive net rating but have faced the 21st easiest schedule in the NBA. Toronto on the other hand has a slight negative differential but they have faced the 5th toughest schedule in the league this season. Miami is 6-6 SU on the road this season with a +1.8PPG differential. Toronto is 5-4 SU at home with an average MOV of +3.8PPG. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, but the Heat are clearly not at full strength here. The Raptors are coming off a home loss to the Knicks but had won 3 straight at home by 7, 13 and 29-points. Toronto owned Miami last season by winning 3 of the four regular season meetings SU, covering all four. The Raptors are 31-21 ATS at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +4PPG. We like Toronto at home in this one.

#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Iowa -2 over Richmond, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with Richmond favored and quickly flipped to Northern Iowa as a small favorite and we agree. It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion as we’re getting a veteran, desperate Panther team at home at near a pick-em. The reason we’re getting some solid value on UNI is because their record is just 2-6 so far this season. They’ve played the 20th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom while Richmond, who has a 5-3 record, has played the 270th most difficult schedule. The Panthers bring back 4 starters and 91% of their minutes from last season and 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents currently rank inside the top 100. They have a solid top 100 win over Stanford 73-51 and nearly beat Texas Tech losing by 2 points. Richmond, on the other hand, has played only 2 teams currently inside the top 125 and lost to both (Boston College & Wichita State). Those were also the Spiders only 2 road games this season losing both by 7 and 12 points. Four of Richmond’s five wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 250 and 3 of those wins were vs teams ranked 315 or lower. The Spiders played host to this match up last year as 6 points favorites and won by 13. However, they lost nearly everyone of note from last year’s team with only 1 starter returning. UNI is off a tough OT loss on Saturday @ Evansville and their last home game was their worst outing of the season (loss to Belmont) so we expect a huge effort in this one. If this game was played a few weeks ago we’d be laying a much larger number with Northern. Take the Panthers at home.