#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs - Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Twins are starting Zebby Matthews here and the rookie is struggling to adjust to the MLB level.  Things are not getting any easier either as he certainly has not been trending the right way either.  Matthews has allowed 15 earned runs in only 10.1 innings over his last 3 starts.  The Guardians also have a starting pitcher that has strong odds of struggling this evening as well.  Gavin Williams mixes in a quality start every once in a while but that appears unlikely here as he has struggled badly in his last 2 starts with one knocking him out in the first inning and the next one seeing him struggle to make it through 5 innings.  Overall Williams has struggled in 5 of his last 8 starts with 22 earned runs allowed in 23.1 innings over those 5 starts.  Certainly Cleveland has a strong bullpen and a great closer but their closer Emmanuel Clase would be pitching a 3rd straight day if he is called upon here.  Certainly this is doable for him but yet is not something he has done very often this season.  As for the Twins, their bullpen ERA ranks 22nd in the majors and they may be needed early here the way Matthews is going.  Yesterday's game was a 4-3 Cleveland win but the teams combined for 18 hits.  Also, the Twins won 3 of 5 and scored 6 runs per game in the 5-game stretch before yesterday's loss.  The Guardians have won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 4.8 runs in the 6 wins.  Cleveland has won 6 of 9 at home and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the 6 victories.  We get a low total to work with because this ballpark is not known for high-scoring games but because of the pitching match-up and the way both teams have swung the bat a little better of late compared to usual, we feel this is exceptional line value here.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 10 to 11 runs here.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

ASA WNBA top play on Las Vegas Aces -7.5 at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - This number opened with Vegas -4.5 and was quickly bet up to the current number once the news of Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor were out tonight. Loyd leads the Storm in scoring at 19.7PPG while Magbegor leads the team in rebounding at 8.0. In the WNBA depth is typically a big concern for teams and these two key pieces missing will be too much for the Storm to overcome. This is a big game for both teams as they currently sit #4 (Vegas) and #5 (Storm) in the playoff standings with only 1-game separating the two teams. The significance is that the #4 seed hosts the first round series against the #5 seed. Las Vegas has looked like the team that won it all last season in recent weeks with a 7-1 SU record in their last eight games. In that 8 game stretch they have an average +/- of +9.6PPG, best in the league. Every win in that 8-game span has come against a current playoff bound team or one in contention. Seattle has won 4 in a row and 5 of their last six games, but their last 3 wins have come against the Sparks and Wings who are the two worst teams in the league and all 3 of those games were close. Las Vegas has dominated this series with a 9-1 SU/ 7-3 ATS record in the last ten meetings. LV won by 5-points on this court earlier this season when the Storm were at full strength. Today the margin is much more against this depleted Seattle roster.

ASA WNBA free play on Connecticut Sun +1.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 7 PM ET - This is a big game for both teams as they sit 2nd and 3rd in the overall playoff standings. The Lynx have a 2 game lead over the Sun with two games remaining. Minnesota has the Sparks on deck so even if they split, they will lock up the 2-seed if the Sun goes 2-0. We have Minnesota graded slightly higher than NY as the best team in the W. With the #2 seed essentially locked up we expect them to rest players and get ready for a playoff run. Connecticut mathematically can move up to the #2 seed (unlikely as the Lynx would have to lose 2 straight) or could fall to the #4 seed behind the Aces. A letdown here by the Lynx would be understandable considering they are coming off a huge win against the Liberty on Sunday. The Sun are coming off a loss in Las Vegas and should be motivated here back at home. Connecticut has won 4-straight in the series and 8 of the last ten. The Sun are 26-12 SU the last two seasons at home with an average +/- of +6.2PPG.