FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 5/28:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with the Atlanta Braves with the money-line versus the Philadelphia Phillies listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dylan Covey. Philadelphia (25-27) has won three of their last four games after their 2-1 win against the Braves in the third game of this series. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 6 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Over is also 4-1-3 in Philadelphia’s last 8 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Atlanta (31-21) has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 17-7-1 in the Braves’ last 25 games at home. Take the Over listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* English Premier League Total of the Year this morning with the Tottenham-Leeds United Over to further their 72 of 115 (63%) All-Sports run with their highest-rated 25* plays! Frank CA$HED his 25* MLB NL Central Total of the Month last night with the Reds-Cubs Over to continue his 6 of 9 (67%) MLB run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Run-Line of the Month for the Philadelphia-Atlanta +1.5/-1.5 Run-Line winner at 7:08 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dylan Covey. The SITUATION: Atlanta (31-21) has lost two games in a row and four of their last six after a 2-1 loss in the third game of their series with the Phillies. Philadelphia (25-27) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta should rebound with a strong effort to settle for a split in this series with their NL East rival. They have won 20 of their last 25 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have won 31 of their last 45 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have also won 51 of their last 78 games at home — and they have won 35 of their last 52 home games against teams with a losing record. Their ace gets the pitching assignment tonight as he looks to build off his 4-2 record along with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.52 and 2.62 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .176 in five starts as opposed to his 1.15 WHIP and .196 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. He should thrive against a Phillies team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .241 Batting Average, a .318 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .384 during that span. Philadelphia has still lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road gassed against teams with a winning record. The Phillies counter with Covey who is getting a tryout in the starting rotation after allowing only one run in five innings of work in relief at home against Arizona last Tuesday. The 31-year-old right-hander has a 0-0 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in his two games spanning nine innings this season. Philly claimed him off waivers after he was sent down by the Los Angeles Dodgers a week ago after a fill-in relief appearance. He has not pitched at the MLB level since 2020 when he had a 7.07 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 14 innings. In his 32 innings in Triple-A for the Dodgers before getting picked up by the Phillies, he had an underwhelming 4.22 ERA with 28 strikeouts by 18 bases-on-balls. He will be supported by a Philadelphia bullpen that has a 5.86 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP on the road this season.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won 42 of their last 51 games when priced at -200 or higher — and they have won 8 of their last 9 home games when priced at -200 or higher with Strider their starting pitcher. While I do not endorse money-line favorites priced above my -150 threshold for featured 25*/20*/10* plays, let’s instead invest in the -1.5 Run-Line to lower the price to back the Braves tonight in a great situation for them. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dylan Covey. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (929) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Luis Ortiz. THE SITUATION: Seattle (27-25) has won five of their last six games after their 5-0 victory against the Pirates in the second game of this series on Saturday. Pittsburgh (26-25) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Seattle has now won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set from 8 to 8.5. Gonzales gets the ball as he looks to build on his six innings of work where he allowed only two runs at home against Oakland last Tuesday. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.30 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in four starts as opposed to his ugly 7.17 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .330 in five starts on the road. The Mariners have won 9 of their last 14 home games with Gonzales pitching with the Total set from 8.5 to 10 range. He should pitch well against this Pirates team that has lost 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Pittsburgh has lost 11 of their last 16 games after losing their previous game — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Ortiz who has a 1-2 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in three starts since getting called up from Triple-A. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.52 and 5.13 moving forward. His lone start on the road this season resulted in him allowing three runs in three innings while walking four batters and giving up seven hits at Detroit. The Pirates have lost 37 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Mariners have won 9 of their last 12 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 8* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (929) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Luis Ortiz. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W17-D6-L14) closes out their season coming off a 3-1 loss to Brentford last Saturday. Leeds United (W7-D10-L20) is winless in their last eight matches after a 3-1 loss at West Ham United on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be a wild affair with both teams having things still at stake. Tottenham needs a win to qualify for European competition next season — although they can still qualify with a draw and some help). The Hotspurs are not playing well under new manager Ryan Mason. They are winless in their last nine matches on the road. They have conceded five combined goals in their last five matches with shaky play from their backline. They are also playing without their world-class keeper Hugo Lloris — Fraser Forster is a downgrade at the position. Tottenham has only one clean sheet in their last 11 contests across all competitions. But they have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches in the English Premier League. With this potentially being Harry Kane’s last match with the team given the rumors that he will move on in the summer transfer window, he will be motivated to go out with a bang for his longtime club. He has a very appetizing opponent in Leeds United who are the worst defensive side in the EPL. The Whites have allowed 74 goals this season, the most in the league. More than 33% of the shots they are giving up are on target — so Kane and company should have plenty of opportunities to pad their stats. Leeds has allowed two or more goals in four straight matches and seven of their last eight contests. They have not generated a clean sheet in 14 straight matches. But the Whites have scored a healthy 47 times with their aggressive style of play in the EPL — and they have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. Leeds have seen four or more combined goals scored in three of their last four matches. And they will be playing with desperation this morning since they must win this match to avoid relegation while getting some help in the results from some other matches.

FINAL TAKE: The final day in the EPL tends to see higher-scoring matches — and that will likely be the case in this one with two struggling defensive sides engaged in a contest with both teams needing to get a win. The reverse fixture between these teams resulted in a 4-3 win for Tottenham at home on November 12th. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (29) and the Dallas Stars (30) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-26-10) has lost the last two games in this series after their 4-2 loss at home to the Stars on Saturday. Dallas (56-26-18) now trails by a 3-2 margin in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Adin Hill had not allowed more than three goals in six straight games before Saturday. Hill still has a 2.30 Goals-Against-Average in his ten playoff games this year with a .932 save percentage — and he has +6.75 Goals Saved Above Expectation this postseason. Coming off his three previous losses in these playoffs, Hill has a .925 save percentage in the next game. Vegas has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by two or more goals. They went into the third period with the game tied before the Stars scored two unanswered goals — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing more than one goal in the third period of their last game. They have also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 44 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total, Dallas has played 26 of these games Under the Total. Dallas suddenly has a hot goaltender between the pipes with Jake Oettinger stopping 27 of the 29 shots he faced on Saturday. After getting benched after seven minutes in the first period of Game Three, Oettinger has allowed only four goals in the last two games with a .941 save percentage and a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average. The Stars have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. They have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on home ice.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 straight Unders when playing in Dallas. 25* NHL Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (29) and the Dallas Stars (30). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (509) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics stayed alive to force a climactic seventh game in this series with Derrick White’s put back about two-tenths of a second before time expired on Saturday. That near-miraculous shot erased many potential narratives — the one I remain interested in is why Marcus Smart’s fade-away 3-pointer was the play with Boston season on the line before White was lucky enough to be in the position where the ball clanged off the rim. Perhaps the best reason to back the Celtics is the historical record of home teams in Game Seven. Home teams have a 36-19 straight-up record in the history of Game Sevens in the NBA playoffs. But the record for home teams is muddier in recent history. Since 2018, home teams are only 7-8 straight-up in Game Sevens — and these home teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these 15 games. Home favorites laying more than 5 points in a Game Seven have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these last 7 circumstances. I am not willing to give too much weight to the historical data before 2018 since so many of those games are before the modern 3-point shooting era. While the sample size is too small to conclude that the road team is the better ATS play in a Game Seven, it is fair to say that simply zombie-playing the home team in Game Seven is now based on muddy data, to say the least. And finally on this issue, NONE of the historical data involved a Game Seven home team who has won three games in a row in the series since this is the very first time a team has forced a Game Seven rallying from an 0-3 deficit that has not then played on the road. Ultimately, I am taking the Heat plus the points because I lack the confidence that the Celtics can close — and their 12 straight missed shots late in Game Six before White’s put-back is the latest example of this phenomenon. Boston should have easily covered the point spread in Game Six before inexplicably letting Miami back in the game. Did this team just think they won the series by surviving Game Six in Boston? Now the Celtics did put a 112-88 thumping on Philadelphia in a Game Seven two weeks ago — but facing James Harden and his teams in Game Seven has been very reliable over the years. So I am comfortable with the “Harden Exception” in that situation. Fundamentally, I consider the power ranking systems that result in Boston being a favorite on their home court in the 8-point range to be flawed since they are largely based on Miami’s 34.4% shooting from behind the arc that ranked 27th in the regular season. The Heat rank second in the postseason by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers this year — and that mark is much closer to their regular season 3-point shooting percentage of 37.9% which was tops in the NBA. Miami also makes 37.9% of their 3-pointers in the 2019-20 bubble season. And while they fell off in the 2020-21 regular season with a 35.8% clip from behind the arc (fatigue might have played a role with the quick turnaround from their appearance in the NBA Finals that fall given the pandemic), that still is higher than their outlier regular season shooting this year. If the playoffs are too small a sample size to trust, there is a good argument that the regular season numbers do not fairly depict the 3-point shooting of this team in the Eric Spoelstra era with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way since their NBA Finals run in 2020. So, I think there is inherent value with the Heat versus this point spread. And I have more faith in this Heat culture under Spoelstra to remain resilient in the face of adversity. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after losing three of their last four games. After going up 3-0, they lose Game Four after taking their foot off the accelerator against an embarrassed Celtics team who finally saw some 3-point shooting variance shift in their direction. Then the injury to Gabe Vincent impacts Game Five back in Boston before Game Six where they lose in a heartbreaking coin flip situation. Vincent played in Game Six — and while he missed 9 of 12 inside the arc, he nailed three of his six 3-pointers and brought his strong defense back to the court. So I do not think Miami is “out of answers” — especially when Spoelstra gives them an edge in coaching. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — supporting my argument that the power ratings have them undervalued. And in their last 40 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the underdog, Miami has covered the point spread in 26 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss of three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for triple revenge against an opponent that has beaten them three straight times. Butler missed 16 of his 21 shots from the field on Saturday — but I suspect this might be the time he steps up again. 10* NBA Miami-Boston TNT Special with Miami Heat (509) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The oddsmakers have lowered the Total for this final contest by six points to account for the historical Game Seven slide in points scored. Even after that, the evidence is strong that this game will finish Under the Total. There were a combined 63 free throw attempts taken in Game Six — but that number should be lower tonight with the referees not wanting to decide the game by unnecessarily placing a key player into foul trouble. Miami only made 35.5% of their shots on Saturday — but that number was still propped up by them naming 14 of their 30 shots (47%) from behind the arc. While they should make more than 36% of their shots tonight, they may not reach their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% from Game Six given the likely regression in 3-point shooting. Jimmy Butler seems slowed by a bad ankle. After scoring 35 and 27 points in Games One and Two, he has only averaged 20.8 Points-Per-Game on 37% shooting in the last four games in this series. The Heat did get Gabe Vincent back on Saturday after he missed Game Five with his twisted ankle, but he missed 9 of 12 shots from inside the arc while showing little lift with his feet. Bam Adebayo has not scored more than 17 points since Game Two while averaging just 12.5 PPG after scoring 21 PPG in the first two games of this series. Kyle Lowry has gone MIA with just 27 combined points since halftime of Game Two. Miami has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in potential closeout playoff games. Boston only made 7 of their 35 shots (20%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday — but they did nail 27 of their 43 shots (62.8%) from inside the arc. So, like Miami, while the Celtics should make more 3s tonight, they may very well underperform their effective field goal percentage of 52.6% in that game. Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the last three games facing the brink of elimination. They have held the Heat to just 43.0% shooting in the last three games which has resulted in only 99.7 PPG. The Celtics have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Boston has played 10 straight Unders in potential elimination games including all five this postseason. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 11 Game Sevens Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The tempo of this series has slowed dramatically. The first four games of this series averaged 96.5 adjusted possessions per game with Game Four seeing 94.3 adjusted possessions per game. Games Five and Six have then averaged just 88.8 adjusted possessions per game with Game Five seeing 84.4 adjusted possessions and Game Six totaling 89.4 adjusted possessions. With these teams tiring and more banged up than they were a week ago, expect another slow game with shaky shooting from both sides. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.