FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 7/2:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday was with the Saskatchewan Roughriders minus the points versus the Montreal Alouettes. Saskatchewan (2-1) lost their first game of the season last week in a 37-13 loss on the road as a 2.5-point favorite against the Alouettes. The Roughriders were playing on a short week for that one — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Saskatchewan has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in July. Montreal (1-2) has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And in their last 4 games after upsetting their last opponent, the Alouettes have failed to cover the point spread in all 4 games. Take Saskatchewan minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports finished last season on an 11 of 15 (73%) Canadian Football League run! Frank chooses his battles carefully in the CFL with a 56 of 89 (63%) CFL long-term mark — and he furthers his 10 of 11 (91%) CFL TOTALS TEAR over the years with the Montreal-Saskatchewan O/U winner on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (685) and the Saskatchewan Roughriders (686). THE SITUATION: Montreal (1-2) won their first game of the season back on June 23rd with their 37-13 upset win at home against the Roughriders. Saskatchewan (2-1) had won the opening two games before that setback.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Roughriders were caught in a tough spot last week playing on a short week with just five days between games. Saskatchewan allowed an 88-yard kickoff return for a touchdown early in the game — and they gave up an 88-yard interception returned for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. They only allowed 333 total yards — and the 23 points they gave up from the Montreal offense is right-in-line with the 29 combined points they gave up in the first two games of the season. The Roughriders have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset loss on the road when favored. Saskatchewan is dealing with injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Wide receiver Shaq Evans and offensive lineman are not expected to return for this rematch after missing last week’s game. The Roughriders only gained 328 yards last week. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Montreal is also dealing with a critical injury after center Sean Jamieson got hurt in last week’s game. The Alouettes’ offense may be out-of-synch with a new center snapping the ball to quarterback Trevor Harris. The Alouettes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog. Montreal averaged 9.0 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging at least 7.6 YPP in their last contest. That result finished Over the 43.5 point total for that contest — but the Alouettes have played 6 straight Unders after an Over in their last game. Montreal has struggled with their rushing attack even with Jamieson at center — they have rushed for only 73 and 60 yards in their last two games. They have played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after not rushing for at least 75 yards in two straight games. The Alouettes' defense has allowed only 33 combined points in their last two games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Saskatchewan. The Roughriders have played 5 straight games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 10* CFL Montreal-Saskatchewan ESPN2 O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (685) and the Saskatchewan Roughriders (686). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (980) versus the Texas Rangers (979) listing both starting  pitchers Trevor Williams and Martin Perez. THE SITUATION: New York (48-29) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 4-3 victory over the Rangers in Game One of this series. Texas (36-39) has lost two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 16 of their last 20 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then won 21 of their last 26 home games after not scoring more than four runs in three straight contests. The Mets have won 14 of their last 18 games at home. They have also won 22 of their last 29 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Williams gets the start today with a 1-4 record this season along with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 42 innings. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 opponent’s batting average in 20 innings as opposed to his 4.88 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .271 opponent’s batting average in 24 innings on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season for Williams with the Pirates and then the Mets (after a midseason trade) when he had a 2.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and .242 opponent’s batting average in 51 innings at home but a 6.75 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .337 opponent’s batting average in 40 innings on the road. His teams have won 10 straight home games with Williams on the mound. He faces a Rangers team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .226 batting average, .279 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .656. Texas has lost 35 of their last 46 games on the road after losing two games in a row. They have also lost 28 of their last 40 road games when priced in the +/- 125 price range. Furthermore, the Rangers have lost 16 of their last 21 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 road games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Perez who has a 6-2 record along with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.83 and 3.66 moving forward. The regression may be already happening since he has allowed at least four runs in two of his last four starts — he has a 4.13 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in those four outings.

FINAL TAKE: New York has won 12 of their last 16 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Mets (980) versus the Texas Rangers (979) listing both starting  pitchers Trevor Williams and Martin Perez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: Colorado (34-44) has won three of their last five games after their 11-7 victory in the second game of this series. Arizona (35-43) has lost two of their last three games and seven of their last ten contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado is a solid team when playing at home at Coors Field where they have a 22-21 record this season. They are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .281 Batting Average, .343 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .799 — and now they have Kris Bryant back in the lineup since being out since April 25th with an injury. The Rockies have won 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set at 11 or higher. Colorado has also won 37 of their last 53 home games against teams with a losing record. Kuhl gets the ball with his 5-5 record along with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander comes off a complete game shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday — and his teams have won 9 of their last 14 games when he is looking to follow up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. Kuhl does his best pitching at home where he sports a 2.48 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in six starts as compared to his 4.39 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and .264 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. He should have success against this Diamondbacks team that has lost 13 of their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Arizona has scored nine and seven runs in their last two games — but they have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. They have also lost 8 of their last 10 games against the Rockies at Coors Field. They counter with Gallen who has a 4-2 record along with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding when pitching at home where he owns a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .197 — but those numbers rise to a 1.24 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The sabermetrics do call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.74 and 3.90 moving forward.

FINAL TAKE: I think the Rockies pull the upset this afternoon — but with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line being priced in the -150 price range, I prefer investing for that insurance. Colorado would have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 14 losses if getting +1.5 Runs. Arizona has failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 9 of their last 25 victories. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Colorado Rockies (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (913) and the Detroit Tigers (914) listing both starting pitchers Brady Singer and Tarik Skubal. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (28-48) has lost five of their last seven games after their 4-3 loss on the road against the Tigers yesterday. Detroit (30-46) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have not scored more than three runs in three straight games — and they have not allowed more than four runs in their last three contests. Kansas City has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after allowing four runs or less in three straight games. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, the Royals have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Singer who has a 3-3 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 54 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.55 and 3.58 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in 18 2/3 innings as compared to his 4.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264. Kansas City has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when Singer is their starting pitcher in day games. The Tigers have seen the Under go 26-10-2 in their last 38 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a win by one run. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 46-22-4 in their last 72 games at home with the Total set at 7-8.5. The Under is also 19-8-2 in the Tigers’ last 29 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. They counter with Skubal who has a 5-6 record along with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts. The sabermetrics are supportive with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.33 and 3.19 moving forward. The left-hander has been particularly tough at home where he owns a 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .235 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home as compared to his 4.50 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .252 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Skubal pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Royals team that has played 36 of their last 53 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 games between these teams when played in Detroit. 10* MLB Kansas City-Detroit Peacock O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (913) and the Detroit Tigers (914) listing both starting pitchers Brady Singer and Tarik Skubal. Best of luck for us — Frank.