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1* NFL - Giants/Commanders FREE PICK on Commanders -3.5

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Chargers +3.5 

Nevada nearly upset Air Force last week, losing by three points in overtime, while covering the 5 1/2-point spread. The Wolf Pack rank 16th in pass defense.

But nearly my entire handicap is a fade on UTEP. The Miners are just dreadful. They have played four FBS teams and have been outscored, 197-31, with the latest loss coming to New Mexico, 61-7, in their first-ever Mountain West Conference game last week.

The Miners can't pass and are averaging fewer than 3 yards per carry rushing versus Division I opponents. Their starting quarterback, EJ Colson Jr., is questionable with a concussion.

The Wolf Pack hold edges in every area against UTEP with the exception of possibly wide receiver. So a double digit Nevada victory should be forthcoming. 

1* Free Wiseguy Play on North Dakota State/UNLV under 47½ -105

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1* Free Pick on 49ers/Seahawks: over 45½

These two offenses are combining for almost 57 points a game and the total sits at 45.5.

That gap is the whole bet.

The 49ers are 4-0 and scoring 30.5 a game.

Brock Purdy leads the league with 11 touchdown passes and hasn't taken a sack through four games.

When the quarterback is clean and protected, points follow.

The weapons are rolling too.

George Kittle has at least 70 receiving yards in three straight games.

Christian McCaffrey has 4 rushing touchdowns and 340 total yards.

Mike Evans is active after clearing the injury report.

Seattle is scoring 26.25 a game and has hit 30 or more in three of four, including 30 on the Chargers last week.

Sam Darnold's offense isn't the run-heavy grinder people remember.

Now the real driver: San Francisco's defense is stripped down.

Nick Bosa is out.

DT James Thompson Jr. misses a third straight game.

Safety Marques Sigle is out.

Slot corner Upton Stout is questionable with an AC joint sprain and unlikely to go after one limited practice.

That's the pass rush and the secondary both compromised on the road.

Recent results back the number too.

The 49ers' game with the Cardinals two weeks ago landed on 66.

Seattle's trip to Washington produced 64.

Both offenses keep finding themselves in games that clear this total with room.

Two healthy, efficient offenses.

One banged-up defense.

A total priced below what both teams have been producing all season.

I like the Over

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Arizona State -20.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are looking to take out their frustration on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.  The Sun Devils are coming off a misleading 55-19 home loss to Baylor in which they gave the game away with a -3 turnover differential.  It was similar to their 48-20 loss to Texas A&M that was very misleading with a -3 turnover differential.  They outgained Texas A&M by 114 yards and held them to 255 total yards.  They did beat Kansas 24-17 in London in between and then had a bye week, so they should be pretty fresh for this one.  Hawaii is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week and it's starting to show.  The Rainbow Warriors are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS this season.  Their offense is broken and missing several key receivers, and their QB is banged up.  They lost by 10 to Stanford, by 15 at home to UNLV, by 17 at Wyoming and by 4 at home to San Jose State.  They are 1-4 despite playing an extremely soft schedule with their lone win coming against New Mexico State.  They won't have much left in the tank for ASU, and they have not fared well when traveling to the mainland in recent years.  This is going to get ugly in a hurry and I'm confident the Sun Devils win by 3-plus TD's.  Give me Arizona State.

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1* Best Bet on Celtics -4½

No analysis provided.

R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Saturday 10-10-26

OVER 50 1/2 Kansas/Utah

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Joe D’s college football is rolling and comes into this Saturday Red Hot. This week will continue to roll over the books with one of my strongest Saturday cards I can remember. Join me this Saturday and together we will steamroll the books: 1st SLEEPER, USC/PSU WINNER, ACC GAME OF THE MONTH, 2-0 BIG TEN BIG GAME WINNER, 3-1 HI ROLLER, 2-0 BOOKIE BUSTER, RED RIVER RIVALRY WINNER, GEORGIA/ALABAMA WINNER, and 1-0 MWC MONEYMAKER.

Saturday’s Free Winner: Kentucky Wildcats.

Game 350.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

In my opinion, the jury is still out and how good of a team LSU really is. Yes, there are 4-1 straight up, but have only covered two of their five outings this season, and lost their only away game thus far of the 2026 campaign. They have certainly had trouble going into Lexington over the years. Speaking of Kentucky, they have won and covered their last three outings against some solid opposition. In mid-September on the road, they took down Texas A&M 31-21 as a 16.5-point underdog. They then crushed South Alabama as nearly a three-touchdown favorite, and last week also on the road took down South Carolina as a small underdog, 35-34. Granted, the Tigers have the Bulldogs on deck at home while the Wildcats have to take it on the road to face the Sooners. But I still feel this is way too many points to give a very game team playing on their own field. There is no debating how good the statistics are for LSU averaging 43.6 points per game on offense, and only allowing 15.2 PPG on defense. Their rankings are very impressive on both sides of the ball without question. Yes, the Wildcats defense gives up more points and is vulnerable in the air. But their offense is well-balanced, and they have a very smart head coach and offensive coordinator. Please remember the Tigers offense has turned the ball over eight times while the Wildcats “O” has coughed up the ball just four times. By the way, they’ve both snagged six takeaways on defense. I just feel this is way too many points to give a team that’s playing on their home field coming into this matchup with momentum. Take the Kentucky Wildcats. Thank you.

OVER 7

Cleveland and Chicago will settle their 5 game series on Saturday night and the over is the move here. Cleveland was able to force the series back home after taking both games in Chicago this week. Their offense came alive as they put up 9 runs in both wins and will go up against Sean Newcomb on Saturday. Cleveland’s offense has been much more patient and they’re putting a lot of traffic on the bases now. Gavin Williams will go for the Guardians and the White Sox have seen him plenty so far this year. Expect this game to feature a lot of action on the bases and for scoring chances to come a lot. Back the over. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER 7. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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The under in London is the number the injury report already priced, and then stopped short of. Philadelphia and Jacksonville are at Tottenham on Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET. The Jaguars are 3-1 and laying 7.5, about -370. The Eagles are 2-2 and getting 7.5, about +295. The total opened 44.5. It is 41.5 or 42 now. Pro-football-reference has the game at 42. That two-point drop is the market admitting the Eagles cannot score. It is not enough of a drop.

Philadelphia is the reason. They are at 18.8 points a game, 26th, and 178.3 passing yards, 30th. Jalen Hurts has 713 yards through the air. Saquon Barkley has 182 on the ground and is not expected to play. Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve. DeVonta Smith, the leading receiver at 235 yards, is questionable with a hamstring. Dallas Goedert is questionable. Hollywood Brown is questionable. Lane Johnson retired. Cam Jurgens was traded. The center is questionable. That is a third-string back, a third center, and a receiver room held together with hope, on a seven-hour flight, for a 9:30 kick. Last week they put up 20 in the first half against the Rams and got shut out in the second. The final was 24-20. A team that can go silent for 30 minutes at home is not a team you buy the over on in London.

Jacksonville is the other half, and it is not a pinball defense. They have allowed 53 points in four games, 13.3 a game, and they lead the league with six interceptions. Trevor Lawrence is completing 69.2 percent with eight touchdowns and two picks. Bhayshul Tuten is the run game. Liam Coen's group is 3-1 and playing like it. A short Eagles offense against a defense that has not given up 20 a game is how a 42 becomes a 34. The Jaguars can win this and still leave the over dead. That is the entire bet.

The spread is the sucker ticket sitting next to it. The look-ahead was Jacksonville -4.5. It is -7.5 because Barkley and Smith hit the report. Laying more than a touchdown at Tottenham, after a three-point steam, on a morning kick, is how London games eat a card. Jacksonville is the better team. The total is the number that matches the bodies.

Bet the under in an NFL game in London when one team is under 20 points a game and missing its lead back. The Eagles' scoring this season: 18.8 a game through four, 26th. The only recent page is a 24-20 loss in which the second half was a zero. One shutout half is not a system. It is the last tape, and the total has already moved two points toward it.

Bet the under against a defense allowing 14 or fewer points a game when the opponent is ranked 25th or worse in scoring. Jacksonville has allowed 53 points in four games, 13.3. Philadelphia is 26th in scoring. The posted total is 42, down from 44.5. Average points in a Jaguars game so far sits near 26 if you only count what they have given up and what a bottom-five offense has managed. The 42 is still a gift.

Shop it. A 42 is the number. A 41.5 is better. If it drifts back to 43 because the public sees Trevor Lawrence and a London shootout that is not on the sheet, take the under and ignore the story. Do not pair it with the Jaguars -7.5. The side is a different bet, and the juice on that moneyline is a tax. The total is the one the injury report wrote and the board only half believed.

NFL BETTING UPDATE REPORT: Four weeks. Sixty-four games into the NFL season. The sheet is already talking, and it is not talking for the favorite. This is the tape. It is not a card. Home clubs are winning 56.3 percent straight up. That is the building. It is not the number. Favorites against the spread are 26–34–4, 43.8 percent, minus-10.4 units. Underdogs are 34–26–4, 56.3 percent, plus-5.0 units. The public is still laying the logo. The logo is still missing the hook. Week by week the fade got louder. Favorites covered 60 percent in Week 1, 50 percent in Week 2, 37.5 percent in Week 3, and 26.7 percent in Week 4. That is not a one-Sunday blip. That is a month of chalk failing to cash. Underdogs against the spread through the first four weeks of 2026 are 34–26–4 (56.3 percent). Favorites are 26–34–4 (43.8 percent). (+5.0 unit$ on the dog side. The favorite side is minus-10.4 units.) The cleanest cut is the division dog. Divisional underdogs are 12–5 against the spread, 70.6 percent, plus-6.1 units. Divisional favorites are 5–12, 29.4 percent, minus-7.5 units. Same games. Opposite side of the ticket. A division Sunday has not been a spot where the bigger logo covered just for being the bigger logo. Divisional dogs against the spread in 2026, through Week 4: 12–5 (70.6 percent). The favorite side of those games is 5–12. (+6.1 unit$, ROI=33.9% on the dog.) Prime time is the other split. Prime-time dogs are 9–3–1 against the spread, 73.1 percent, plus-5.2 units. Prime-time favorites are 3–9–1, 26.9 percent, minus-6.3 units. A national window is how the home chalk gets the tickets. It has not been how the chalk covers. Prime-time dogs against the spread in 2026: 9–3–1 (73.1 percent). Prime-time favorites: 3–9–1 (26.9 percent). (+5.2 unit$, ROI=36.1% on the dog.) Home dogs are 14–9–1, 60.4 percent, plus-3.7 units. Road dogs are 20–17–3, a lean, not a hammer. Road favorites are 9–14–1, 39.6 percent, minus-5.8 units. Laying a number on the road has been the worst regular job on the board. Double-digit favorites are 1–2 against the spread. The truck has not been a cover. Home favorites are 17–20–3, 46.3 percent, minus-4.6 units. Road favorites in 2026 are 9–14–1 ATS (39.6 percent), minus-5.8 units. Home dogs are 14–9–1 (60.4 percent), plus-3.7 units. Totals are a coin flip with a split inside it. Overs and unders sit at 32–32 on one sheet and 31–32 on another. Average combined score is 46.2. Games posted over 50 have gone over 5–2, 71.4 percent, plus-2.5 units. Games posted 40 or under have gone over only 2–4, 33.3 percent, so the under in that band is 4–2. The short number has lived low. The fat number has lived high. Prime-time overs are 8–5. That fights the side. Prime-time dogs have covered. Prime-time games have still found points. Games posted over 50 through four weeks: overs 5–2 (71.4 percent). (+2.5 unit$, ROI=32.1%.) Games posted 40 or lower: overs 2–4 (33.3 percent). The under is 4–2. (−2.2 units on the over side of that band.) The team sheet has one perfect cover club. The Raiders are 4–0 against the spread and 3–1 straight up, covered as a favorite and as a dog. The 49ers are 4–0 and 3–1 against the number. The Colts and Bears are 3–1 against the spread. That is the 2026 tape. A perfect cover month is not the same thing as the next number. The historical rhyme is the one this league has sung for years. Home dogs in the mid-50s to 60 percent against the number. Favorites closer to a coin flip once the juice is in. A 43.8 percent favorite-cover rate through four weeks is the low end of that range, not a new sport. Week 4 at 26.7 percent is the extreme. A 26.7 does not have to repeat for the first-month split to still be the split.

#344 ASA FREE PLAY Penn State -1.5 over USC, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This lined opened with USC as a slight favorite but flipped to PSU despite the fact they are coming off back to back losses. The Nittany Lions are now backed into a corner at 0-2 in Big 10 play and in a must win spot at home. Two weeks ago they led Wisconsin by 17 points and lost in the final minutes. Last week they traveled to Northwestern and looked flat from the kick which may have been a result of the Wisconsin loss. The Wildcats were also in a good spot at home opening their brand new stadium on Friday night in prime time. The Cats ran all over Penn State and picked up an easy win. Embarrassing performance to say the least and we expect them to bounce back and play well at home on Saturday night with a whiteout scheduled at Beaver Stadium. USC makes the long travel across the country, a situation they’ve been terrible in over the years. In fact, over the last decade, the Trojans are 4-13 SU and 2-15 ATS when playing in the eastern or central time zones. This team doesn’t travel well which is understandable because their defense usually stinks. No different this year as USC ranks outside the top 100 allowing opponents 6.0 YPP. In their 3 Big 10 games, the Trojan defense is allowing 428 yards on 6.5 YPP and 32 PPG. Their only trip east this season was @ Rutgers and they almost lost outright vs the worst team in the Big 10. USC’s defense allowed 6.7 YPP in that game and needed a 99-yard pick 6 (which was a 14 point swing) to hold on for a 42-35 win. Last week the Trojans got a tight win at home vs Washington 25-21 but were outgained on YPP basis in that one and needed a 48 yard fumble returned for a TD to get the tight win. For the season, PSU still has the better YPP margin at +1.4 to USC’s +1.0. PSU is still a tough place to win as the Nits are 62-14 here since the start of the 2015 season and they are 5-1 vs teams from the west coast during that span. Perfect spot to take Penn State as a very low home chalk.

Marc David's NHL Free Pick

We really like home underdog in this matchup. Fresno State (4-1) has been a different team since their opening loss at USC. They’ve won four straight and allowed just 43 points in the process, including a 26-6 road win at Washington State last week. Their defense is playing with confidence, and they get a late-night kickoff at Valley Children’s Stadium against a team they handled 30-7 in Boise a year ago.

Boise State (4-1) also comes in with momentum having won four in a row since a 34-27 loss at Oregon, and their offense is rolling at 438 yards per game with a run game averaging 5.3 yards per carry. But they’ve given up 20 or more points in three of five games, and this is the best defense they’ve faced since the opener.

Fresno State has the defense to slow the Boise State run game and keep this one tight at home. We’ll take the points with the Bulldogs.

This is a FREE PLAY on Fresno State ATS. 

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1% GOLD RUSH on Colts/Steelers: over 43