Free Picks

*2 Star Free Play on Seattle* The Seahawks defense is top notch, and I think they'll give Arizona all sorts of trouble here. Drew Lock is a solid backup quarterback, and I'm not convinced the Cardinals defense is as good as they looked in week one. 

This is a really big reaction by the market, and I believe it is an overreaction. Arizona is still one of the weaker rosters in the NFL. Seattle has a top two or three defense in the NFL. 

Let's lay the short price with Seattle.

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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: New Orleans Saints +9

The spot is not great with the Saints off an OT loss to the Lions.  But I think the spot is being factored into this line too much, and the fact that the Ravens are down several key players isn't being factored in enough.  Thus I'll take the +9 on the Saints in a game that I fully expect to go down to the wire.

It would be much tougher to bounce back from an OT game on a short week like the Lions were on Thursday.  That was a big reason I faded the Lions and backed the Bills.  But the Saints have had three extra days to recover here.  It was Week 1, so the Saints know they have their whole season ahead of them.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the Ravens this week.

I would argue the Saints outplayed the Lions and really deserved to win that game when you look at the box score.  They outgained the Lions 469 to 369, or by 100 yards.  Tyler Shough lived up to all the praise he got all offseason after his big finish last year.  He threw for 410 yards and 3 TD against the Lions, and keep in mind his receivers had several key drops in the first half of it would have been more.

The Saints are actually pretty healthy for this game too.  They get Cam Jordan back after he sat out against the Lions last week.  Chris Olave is the only key player on offense on the injury report, and I expect him to play after he kept coming back last week to finish with 10 receptions for 182 yards.  DE Chase Young is the only key player questionable defensively.

No question the Ravens were impressive in their 41-23 win at Indianapolis in the opener.  What they did in the first half when they were fully healthy was mighty impressive.  They outscored the Colts 31-13 in the first half with Zay Flowers going off for 5 receptions for 150 yards and a TD.  At full strength, the Ravens may very well be the best team in the NFL this season.

But Flowers left the game in the 2nd quarter with a hamstring injury and has already been ruled out.  Fellow starting WR Ja'Kobi Lane suffered a fractured wrist in the win and has gone on IR.  LT Ronnie Stanley and LG John Simpson are both questionable.  The offense won't be nearly as dynamic without Flowers, and this is a solid New Orleans defense that can hold Baltimore in check.

The injuries are piling up on defense for the Ravens, too.  They will be without DT Nnamdi Madubuike, LB Teddye Buchanan and CB T.J. Tampa who are all starters.  Now their prized signing in free agency in LB Trey Hendrickson is dealing with a finger injury, though I would expect him to go.

I also think the Ravens benefited from having new schemes with a new head coach in Jesse Minter up against Indianapolis.  Minter and this Ravens defense knew what to expect from a Shane Steichen offense.  They also caught Daniel Jones in his first game back from injury and you could tell he was hesitant to run,  Without his legs, Jones is one of the worst QB's in the NFL.  

They blitzed the Colts in the 1H and their win and cover has them overvalued this week.  It will be much tougher sledding against a healthy Saints team with all the injuries the Ravens are dealing with now.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Saints/Ravens OVER 45

UNDER 48

Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the UNDER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL O/U Play

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1* Free Pick on Raiders +7

The Chargers opened as double-digit home favorites against Arizona last week and lost 26-14.

Now the market is asking them to win by more than a touchdown against a better opponent.

That's a price I'll take.

Both teams have played 1 game this season, so this is about the matchup and the number, not streaks.

And the Week 1 tape favors Vegas.

The Raiders posted 5 sacks against Miami, tied for the NFL lead, with Kwity Paye getting 2 and Maxx Crosby adding 1.5.

Justin Herbert was sacked 3 times by Arizona and threw a pick.

That pass rush against that protection is the core of this play.

Herbert's weapons are thinning out too.

Ladd McConkey is questionable with a rib injury, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith landed on injured reserve.

If McConkey sits or plays limited, this offense runs through Quentin Johnston, who caught 2 of 6 targets last week.

On the other side, Ashton Jeanty went 23 for 102 on the ground and added 6 catches for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He controls tempo and keeps this game short.

The fair knock on Vegas is Kirk Cousins.

Two interceptions and 160 passing yards in Week 1 is real, and he'll give one away here too.

But I don't need Cousins to win the game.

I need Jeanty and that front seven to keep it inside a touchdown, and the Raiders held Miami to 13 points and 259 total yards doing exactly that.

Getting the full 7 covers the most common margin in football.

That's line value.

I like the Raiders

1* NFL - Steelers/Patriots FREE PICK on Patriots -5

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Seahawks/Cardinals OVER 40.5

The Key: The Seahawks played on opening night as defending Super Bowl champs.  They have now had 10 days to get ready for the Arizona Cardinals.  Getting that extra time is huge for this Seattle offense to prepare Drew Lock to be their starting QB.  Offensive coordinator Brian Fleury will be able to put in more plays that better suit his skill set.  I think this total has been adjusted down too much with Lock starting instead of Darnold.  Arizona already has a great offense with an offensive-minded coach in Mike LaFleur.  Jacoby Brissett is better than he gets credit for and is loaded with playmakers around him.  The Cardinals put up 26 points and 393 yards against the Chargers in Week 1.  Their defense held the Chargers in check, but they benefited from an injury to WR Ladd McConkey and a banged up Chargers O-Line.  I still think this is going to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the season plays out like they were last season.  The Seahawks and Cardinals have combined for at least 41 points in 8 of their last 12 matchups.  All 6 matchups in Arizona saw 41 or more combined points during this stretch.  Take the OVER.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Carolina Panthers -2

The Atlanta Falcons are up against it with Cooper Rush as their starting QB.  He's easily the worst QB in the NFL currently starting this week.  Rush went 12-of-22 for 143 yards with one touchdown and two INT's.  He literally just checked the ball down to Bijan Robinson almost every time he passed, and when he didn't he got in trouble.  Robinson had 8 receptions for 90 yards and a score.  There were only four receptions from other receivers, and none of them even went to TE Kyle Pitts.  This offense is so limited with Rush and easy to stop.  The Panthers go from facing arguably the best offense in the NFL in the Bears to arguably the worst offense in their current state in the Falcons.  This Carolina defense is going to look much better this week.  The Panthers are loaded on offense and gashed the Bears for 478 yards including 353 passing.  They are fully healthy on offense right now.  The Falcons have other injury concerns outside QB with RG Chris Lindstrom and CB AJ Terrell questionable, plus CB Billy Bowman out.  They were already without LB James Pearce and LB Jalon Walker to severely limit their pass rush.  The Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Falcons so they already have their number.  Give me the Panthers.

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Rocketman Sports FREE NFL play Sunday 9-20-26

Jacksonville @ Denver  (4:05 PM EST)
Play On:  Denver -2 -120

The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Denver to take on the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.  Jacksonville is 1-0 SU overall this year while Denver comes in with an 0-1 SU overall record on the season.  Denver is 7-1 SU and ATS last 3 years as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  Denver is 7-1 ATS last 3 years at home after playing a division game.  The Broncos bounce back strong here.  We'll recommend a small play on Denver on Sunday!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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MASSIVE SUNDAY CARD UP 4-1 Last Sunday. Today a TOP RED ZONE Release, 26-0 AFC TOTAL OF the Year and 3 more best Bets. Comp play below

The NFL Comp play for Sunday is on Atlanta plus the points at 1 eastern. The Falcons have Rush starting and should be much better on offense with him this week as opposed to last week in Pittsburgh. They take on a Carolina team that allowed 50+ point last week in a loss to Chicago. Rob notes that week 2 road favorites are 0-6 to the spread long term off a home dog loss. The Falcons will likely control the ball behind a strong run game and they do have double revenge especially for the 30-0 loss here last season. Look for the Falcons to get the cover. GL Rob V-

Tennessee. Tennessee was held to just 195 yards and 10 points in week 1, as rookie QB Cam Ward struggled against pressure and averaged 4.4 yards per attempt. Philadelphia did not blitz often but still had one of the best pressure rates in Week 1.

On the other side of the ball, Tennessee allowed 142 yards on the ground to RBs. Philadelphia should be able to attack this weakness with Saquon Barkley and what should be a better offensive line than last season.

If Philadelphia dominates up front and forces Ward into obvious passing downs, they should win this game easily.

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Cleveland at Tampa Bay 1:00 ET

Browns (+) over Buccaneers - Bot of these clubs took it on the chin last week and only one is expected to rebound and actually have a shot at the post-season. So, it will becomes especially difficult for the Buccaneers if they go 0-2 and the pressure is already on. Take CLEVELAND!

Fifty and a half in Arlington is the number I want you holding. Not because both defenses are fake. Because 50.5 is the number the market hung on a series that just lived 53, 66, 60, 48 and 55.

You are not fading defense. You are fading a 50.5 that is priced like this rivalry forgot how it scores. Cowboys lead it 81-49-2. That is the side of the ledger. The total is the other page. Last six meetings: 30-23, 44-22, 23-19, 34-26, 38-10, 45-10. Combined 53, 66, 42, 60, 48, 55. Five of six cashed a 50. Last two in this building: 44-22 and 23-19. One smash, one under on a 43.5. Public money will hammer the under because Week 1 was 24-22 and 28-20 and “NFC East always stalls in September.” That is how 50.5 gets to the window looking fat instead of the number that does not match Christmas, October, Thanksgiving, and January in this series.

Do not buy this down to 49.5 and pay extra juice to sleep better. The 50.5 is the reason I am writing it. Sit on your hands. Let the first quarter look like October in Dallas. If it is 14-10 at the half, the over is already doing its job.

Sunday 4:25. Dallas -4.5. Washington 0-1 after 24-22 in Philadelphia. Dallas 0-1 after 28-20 to the Giants. Combined 46 and 48 last week. That is not this series. This series in the last two years has been 66 and 53 and 60. Cowboys 3,150 points all-time in the rivalry, Washington 2,582. The building does not keep these games in the 30s unless somebody forgets to throw it.

Bet the over 50.5 in Commanders–Cowboys games.
Last 6 meetings: 53, 66, 42, 60, 48, 55. Five of six cashed 50. Average 54.0. (+3.6 units, ROI=54.5%)

Bet the over when these two meet in Dallas and the number is 50 or higher.
Last meeting here: 44-22. Posted 55.5 and still went over. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%)

Bet overs in this series when five of the last six already cleared 47.
38-10 was the “low” one and it still cashed 47. (+4.0 units, ROI=60.6%)

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Scoring was up around the league last Sunday and nowhere was that more pronounced than in Carolina where the Bears put up nearly 60 points in a wild contest. Chicago head coach Ben Johnson said prior to the start of the regular season that he didn't just want his team's offense to be good this year, but record-setting. So far, so good. I do think the Bears will face a lot more resistance this week as they take on Brian Flores' Vikings defense. Minnesota got off to a slow start against Green Bay but ultimately took over proceedings in the fourth quarter to pull away for a season-opening victory. With that being said, it did lose QB Kyler Murray to a scary-looking concussion in that game, pressing Carson Wentz into action. I don't think the Vikes will want any part of a shootout with this loaded Bears offense on Sunday. In this divisional matchup, I simply feel this total is too high as an overreaction to last week's results. Take the under (8*).

#256 ASA FREE PLAY ON New England Patriots -5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We just don’t see the Steelers putting up enough points in this to cover game with an offense that just averaged 4.1 Yards Per Play last week against the Falcons. Those numbers came against an inferior Falcons defense a week ago and now they are facing a superior Pats defense. The Steelers got a TD from their defense and JJ Watt with an INT return and had their lone offensive TD set up by an interception inside the 35-yard line. Pittsburgh managed just 58 total yards rushing and 206 passing. New England is coming off their overseas loss to the Seahawks but it wasn’t because of their defense. The Pats offense had 3 TO’s and produced just 277 total yards of O on 4.1Y.P.P.L. The Pats defense played extremely well by holding the Seahawks (albeit w/o Darnold) to 97 yards rushing and 188 passing and 13-points. That same Hawks offense that averaged 29.2PPG a year ago. Last year when these same two teams met the Steelers managed 203 total yards at 4.1Y.P.P.L. and their last TD came with 2:16 left in the game. The Patriots offense will be much better this week at home and will bounce back after that horrible showing against a Seahawks defense which might be the best in the league. NE was 2-0 SU off a loss a year ago and they won those games by an average of +13PPG. Lay it here with the Patriots.

1% GOLD RUSH on Eagles/Titans: under 39½