Free Picks

NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Nevada vs. Boise State
Nevada
+24 -110
  at  CIRCA
in 17h

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Nevada +24

The Nevada Wolf Pack are much better than their 3-7 record would indicate this season.  They have the numbers of a team that would be .500 on the season, but they have had some misleading finals and tough breaks in close games.

The Wolf Pack showed they could play with anyone taking SMU to the wire in a 29-24 loss as 27-point dogs in their opener.  That effort looks even better now considering SMU has only lost once since, and that loss came to unbeaten BYU.

Nevada is 1-3 SU in games decided by 5 points or less with the win coming against Oregon State.  Their last two losses were very misleading, which is why this line is inflated.  They didn't have QB Brendon Lewis available for their 34-13 loss at Hawaii two games ago.  They were only outgained by 15 yards.  They lost 38-21 at home to Colorado State last week despite outgaining the Rams by 114 yards.

Lewis returned last week to complete 20-of-28 passes for 252 yards and one TD, while also rushing for 109 yards and two scores to prove he is healthy.  He means everything to this team.  Despite being 3-7 on the season and with Lewis missing time with injury, the Wolf Pack are only getting outgained by one yard per game on the year.

Boise State is getting a lot of hype now as the favorite to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff.  The Broncos opened 12th in the initial college football playoff rankings this week.  With that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very hard to live up to.  

I fully expect the Wolf Pack to give the Broncos a fight this week and to treat this as their 'National Championship' game now that they know they won't be going to a bowl.  They also have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' this week.  Lewis will make enough plays to keep them within this 24-point spread for four quarters.  Bet Nevada Saturday.

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Utah State vs. Washington State
OVER
70 -109
  at  BETVEGAS
in 19h

*Free Play Over* The Utah State Aggies have a bottom five defense in the country. Utah State is giving up 6.4 yards per carry in Mountain West play. They have had 74 points or more scored in three of their last four games.

Utah State is second in the country in tempo, so the Aggies are pushing the pace to the extreme. Utah State is pretty good offensively. They are 41st in the nation in yards per play. Washington State is 106th in yards per play allowed.

Washington State is 30th in pace. John Mateer should have a field day in this one. He is a great runner who creates explosive plays. Washington State is 6th in the country in explosiveness on offense. Washington State is averaging 50.75 points per game in their home contests this year. I expect a big number from them here.

The pace and weak defenses here should be enough. 

Take the over. 

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee State
Liberty
-11 -109
  at  CONSENSUS
in 10h

Liberty is coming off consecutive outright losses as favorite and are taking alot of heat for underperforming this season.  The Flames have the talent to really lambast the home side  and now in desperation mode , as they look for a decent bowl invite that could easily be used to ignite this group into  playing to their potential. 

Middle Tennessee State  is on a 0-9 ATS run  in conference play when coming off an upset victory and 0-10 ATS/SU when coming off an outright upset win . 

Play on Liberty to cover

NCAA-B  |  Nov 09, 2024
North Dakota vs. Texas-San Antonio
North Dakota
+9 -110
  at  YOUWAGER
in 16h
[1%] Free Play on North Dakota
NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
Virginia
+7½ -105
  at  YOUWAGER
in 17h

Saturday the 2024 TOTAL OF THE YEAR headlines the College Football card along with the BIG 10 Game of the Month. There is also a TIER 1 Side in College Hoops as well as NBA. ACC Comp play below

The College Football Comp play is on Virginia plus the 7-8 points at Pittsburgh tonight. The Panthers are home here and favored after suffering their first loss of the season last week. That loss sets them up in a Database System that sees Home favorites this late in the season off their initial loss failing to cover 21 of 26 times long term. The Cavs have covered 4 of the last 5 despite losing the last three and should keep this game close. Take the Points here with Virginia. Rob V-

NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Michigan vs. Indiana
Indiana
-14 -110
  at  LINEPROS
in 12h

Michigan vs Indiana 
3:30 ET | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN 
5-Unit Bet on the Michigan Wolverines priced as 14-point underdogs. 

Coming off a 5-2 ATS NFL Sunday and 10-UNIT MAX Bet goes tonight in MNF action. 7-2 ATS this season with 10-UNIT MAX Bets!

Live Betting Strategy: The markets opened this game with Indiana priced as a 14-point favorite and the line is likely to grind higher throughout the week. My suggestion is to bet 50% of my 5-Unit betting amount (3 to 10-Unit gradings and 10-UNITS are 7-2 ATS for 74% winning bets in the NFL and CFB combined this season and 67% ATS over more than 5 seasons) on Monday and then use the remaining 50% to add on Indiana if Michigan scores the first points of the game, retakes the lead during the first half of action, or the line drops to 9.5 or fewer-points. 

The Hoosiers have Bloomington Rocking with Excitement 

Indiana has had a historic season and as a fan of college football nothing makes me more in love with the game than teams just like Indiana. The Hoosiers do not have a 100,000+ stadium of fanatic fans but they do have one half as big that seats 52,626 fans and rank as the 15th largest of the 18 teams in the Big Ten Conference.  

Under first year head coach, Curt Cignetti, he has put together a terrific team filled with players who simply love and play hard for all 60 minutes. They are in position to win their third Big ten Conference Championship in their 126-year program history. Indiana's undefeated season is a remarkable achievement, especially considering their previous 126 seasons. The Hoosiers have never started a season 9-0, making this one of the best starts in program history. 

Michigan Wolverines (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) 

Offensive Stats: 414 total yards per game 

Defensive Stats: 11.9 points allowed per game (2nd in Big Ten) 

Key Player: QB J.J. McCarthy (732 yards, 5 TDs, 6 INTs) 

Injuries: None reported 

Indiana Hoosiers (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) 

Offensive Stats: 46.5 points per game (2nd in nation) 

Defensive Stats: 14.1 points allowed per game (2nd in Big Ten) 

Key Player: QB Kurtis Rourke (2,204 yards, 19 TDs, 3 INTs) 

Injuries: None reported 

Key Matchups 

Michigan's Pass Rush vs. Indiana's Offensive Line: Michigan's elite pass rushers will test Indiana's offensive line, which has allowed 8 sacks this season. 

Indiana's Rushing Attack vs. Michigan's Run Defense: Indiana's Justice Ellison (669 yards, 9 TDs) will face Michigan's top-ranked run defense. 

Indiana's Air Attack vs. Michigan's Secondary: Indiana's Elijah Sarratt (649 yards, 5 TDs) will challenge Michigan's secondary, which has allowed long touchdown passes in recent games. 

The Meaningful Situational Angles 

Indiana finally got the attention of the pollsters and jumped 5 spots to No. 8 however that is not the best of news from an analytical view. Teams that jumped higher by five or more spots in the current polls and the current game taking place from week 9 to the end of the season have gone 237-143 SU (62%) and 166-203-11 ATS for 45% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. Since 2015 these juggernauts have tended to fall a bit flat going 96-59 SU (62%) and 63-86-6 ATS for 58% winning bets. However, teams that jumped five or more spots in the polls, playing at home, and priced as a double-digit favorite from week 9 on out to the end of the season have gone 42-5 SU (89.4%) and 21-25-1 ATS for 46% last 25 seasons. So, the jump in the polls does not correlate all that well to the game results based on the “P-Value”. 

Teams, like Indiana, playing from week 9 on out to the end of the season that have an offensive to defensive efficiency differential of –8 or lower, playing at home, and are undefeated have gone 90-13 SU (87%) and 58-39-5 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.  if the opponent is not ranked our undefeated teams have gone 71-5 SU (83.4%) and 45-27-3 for 63% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Drilling deeper into the database we learn that our undefeated teams have gone 17-0 SU (100%) and 11-5-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 25 seasons if the foe is coming off a home loss. 

From the Predictive Models 

The Hoosiers have been dominant this season, outscoring opponents by a combined 372-113 and lead the Nig ten with the most efficient offensive posting a 10.23 yards-per-point ratio. This simply means on average Indiana puts up one point for every 10 yards they have gained this season. The Michigan defense has the fifth worst defensive efficiency ratio at 14.79 i the Big Ten and this is a significant advantage for the Indiana offense. Indiana has the second-best defensive efficiency ratio posting a 19.19 yards per point allowed while Michigan’s offense ranks 7th-best in the Big Ten at 10.23 yards-per-point. So, Indiana has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this matchup. 

The models are projecting that Indiana will score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past home games when Indiana has met or exceeded these projections, they went 17-2 SU (90%) and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If these games were played at Memorial Stadium, they went 11-0 SU and 8-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons.  

The Indiana Hoosiers are not a team to fade as they are on a current undefeated winning run that has seen their confidence soar and their play execution far better than what Michigan has done this season. 

NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Georgia State vs. James Madison
James Madison
-14½ -109
  at  CONSENSUS
in 12h

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on James Madison -14.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on James Madison today in a very favorable situational spot over Georgia State.  The Dukes are off a bye while the Panthers are playing their 4th consecutive road game.  This is a rare situation, but teams off a bye facing a team playing their 4th consecutive road game are 7-0 ATS since 2019.  Georgia State was down 21 at UConn last game in the 4th quarter before scoring 2 TD in garbage time to only lose by 7, making it a misleading final.  They also lost by 15 at Marshall and by 7 at Appalachian State.  This is a hungry JMU team trying to chase down a Sun Belt title and it's the best team Georgia State has faced since Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech in non-conference play.  It won't go well for the Panthers in this contest.  Take James Madison.

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Colorado vs. Texas Tech
Colorado
-4 -110
  at  CIRCA
in 13h

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick

PLAY ON: Colorado -4

I'm laying the 4-points on the road with Colorado against the Red Raiders. The Buffaloes have been way undervalued by the books this season. They come into this game having covered 6 in a row. Colorado is built around their strong passing attack. They will be up against a bad Texas Tech pass defense. Red Raiders are 133rd in the country, giving up 307.2 passing yards/game. They give up 13.3 yards/completion. Texas Tech is going to be able to move the ball, but I trust this Buffaloes defense to get some stops. Colorado is drastically improved on that side of the ball. The other big thing is the scheduling spot. Buffaloes are coming off a bye, while the Red Raiders are in a letdown spot off an upset win on the road against an undefeated ISU team. I like Colorado to win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Colorado -4! 

NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Central Florida vs. Arizona State
Central Florida
+3 -113
  at  LINEPROS
in 16h

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Central Florida +3

Everyone and their broth was on UCF to beat BYU two weeks ago. After losing that game, now everyone is off their scent.  The Knights found a QB at the end of that BYU game, and it carried over into their 56-12 win over Arizona last week. Gus Malzahn gave up play calling duties and fired his defensive coordinator heading into that Arizona game.  It worked wonders as the Knights went for over 600 yards against Wildcats.  QB Dylan Rizk threw for 294 yards and 3 TD while completing 80% of his passes in the win.  He also rushed for 55 yards to keep the dual-threat going from the previous QB's Malzahn gave reps to prior to Rizk.  Arizona State could be without star RB Cam Skattebo, who suffered an injury against Oklahoma State last week.  He has rushed for 1,001 yards and 11 TD with 404 receiving yards and 2 TD.  He is almost their entire offense.  Even if he goes this week he will be hobbled.  Give me UCF.

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NFL  |  Nov 10, 2024
Giants vs. Panthers
Panthers
+5 -110
  at  CIRCA
in 1d

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #262 Carolina Panthers over New York Giants (9:30a.m., Sunday, November 10 NFL Network) The Panthers won their second game of the season last Sunday and I expect them to be able to take this game down to the wire as well. Do not believe the New York Giants should be favored by this many points against anyone in the league. I have not given up on Bryce Young and feel he will have a good game following a much needed victory last week. Both teams have issues and thus we will grab the points with Daniel Jones likely on his way out as quarterback of the Giants. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring top plays in football, CFL, CBB, NBA, & NHL!

NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Central Florida vs. Arizona State
Arizona State
-2½ -109
  at  CONSENSUS
in 16h

1* NCAAF - UCF/Arizona State FREE PICK on Arizona St -2.5 

NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee State
OVER
53½ -130
  at  ACE
in 10h
1* FREE INFO PLAY
Soccer  |  Nov 09, 2024
Parma vs. Venezia
Venezia
+154
  at  CIRCA
in 6h
1* Free Sharp Play on Venezia
NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Miami-FL vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech
+10 +100
  at  YOUWAGER
in 9h

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Miami at Georgia Tech 9:45 ET

Yellow Jackets (+) over Hurricanes- Many ho root for Miami have to admit that they have been very fortunate this season pulling out wins when it seemed unlikely. Georgia Tech started the season with a win over Florid State and big things were thought of for this club before everyone realized that the Seminole were garbage. The Yellow Jackets will have to put their defense which only allows 323 yards per game. Take GEORGIA TECH!

NCAA-F  |  Nov 09, 2024
Nevada vs. Boise State
Boise State
-23½ -109
  at  CONSENSUS
in 17h
Nevada showed some early promise, but the Wolf Pack are regressing. It's not a good time for them to be meeting Boise State.

The Wolf Pack have lost three in a row, including blowout losses the past two weeks as small underdogs to Colorado State and Hawaii. After holding their first five opponents all below 30 points, the Wolf Pack have surrendered an average of 33.6 points in their last five games. 

That doesn't bode well for the Wolf Pack's chances against the explosive Broncos, who rank in the top-four in points per game at 45.8, total yards and rushing yards while featuring Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty, who is averaging eight yards a carry. Nevada ranks 80th in run defense. 

I don't expect the Wolf Pack to get many stops. Their hope is to score enough points to cover the spread. QB Brendon Lewis has displayed promise. However, the Wolf Pack managed only 13 points against Hawaii during their previous road game. 

Boise State has 38 sacks. No college football team has more. I don't trust Nevada's offensive tackles to slow down Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Ahmed Hassanein, who have a combined 15 1/2 sacks. The best part of the Broncos' defense, though, has been against the run where they rank 30th, holding foes to 3.4 yards per rush. 

The Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. During this span, the Broncos covered a 28-point line against Utah State and a 24-point spread versus San Diego State. By comparison, San Diego State defeated Hawaii, a team that beat Nevada by 21 points. 

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is having another winning college football season going 34-24 on his premium/free plays. Stephen has three premium CFB plays going Saturday in addition to this free selection headed by his SEC Total of the Year.)